Reds can solve the Brady Singer and Tyler Stephenson dilemma for $23 million

The Cincinnati Reds' two most pressing holes to fill this offseason will be at the back end of the starting rotation and at catcher. With other needs across the roster and a limited budget, the team can't afford to overspend on these positions. With that said, they can't be ignored, either.

The players in question that are opening those holes are Brady Singer and Tyler Stephenson. The best possible replacements for the Reds for those players might be...Brady Singer and Tyler Stephenson.

There was some thought that Cincinnati could bring back Singer on the qualifying offer, but a disastrous September has put to bed any notions that spending $23 million on a one-year deal to retain the right-hander is a good idea.

Singer's 5.67 ERA is the worst among qualified starters this season, but that is a somewhat misleading stat. For one thing, the 30-year-old has dealt with some bumps and bruises this year, coming out of spring training with a blister issue and then dealing with some soreness after making a diving attempt at a comebacker during his August 25 start against the San Francisco Giants.

Another issue with Singer has been the fact that when he's been bad, he's been really bad. The other side of that coin is that when he's been good, he's been really good. For example, from June 1 through July 31, he made 10 of his 30 starts, posting a 3.34 ERA and 3.63 FIP. In May, however, he posted a 7.77 ERA, and so far in September, he has recorded a ghastly 15.32 mark.

Singer is typically as steady as they come, and with his track record, it's a fair bet that he rebounds moving forward. Nevertheless, at $23 million for one year, that's not a gamble worth taking. But if he'd take two years for $26 million, it's something worth strongly considering.

As for Stephenson, the case to bring him back is much more clear-cut. With the exception of his 2023 season when he struggled after undergoing shoulder surgery, he has always been an above-average hitter. Overall this season, he has a 104 wRC+, but that includes a cold start to the year. From June 1 onward, he's hit .276/.350/.468, which is good for a 122 wRC+.

Defensively, the veteran backstop is better than he's given credit for. He's a 99th-percentile pitch blocker and one of the best in the game at ABS challenges. Both of those skills have a ton of value.

As for bringing him back, the Reds need to make it a priority. Not only do they have nothing in the way of internal options ready to take over, but there's little in the way of free-agent alternatives. Only Ryan Jeffers stands out as a true starting-caliber catcher, and he'll command a pretty penny. It's assumed that $12 million per year will be the maximum that he'll get, so if we split the difference and offer him a two-year, $20 million contract, he'll likely re-sign.

Reds can split the $23 million qualifying offer between Brady Singer and Tyler Stephenson, giving them more flexibility

At those numbers, Cincinnati would be paying $23 million for the pair of veterans, rather than forking up $23 million for Singer alone. In the grand scheme of things, that's huge.

Neither of these players is a star, but they can be the kinds of solid complementary pieces that augment the Reds' young core and raise the floor. Signing them to deals like this and making a couple of other maneuvers could actually give the team more wiggle room to add some additional pieces.

A rough look at Cincy's books shows $63.7 million coming off the $133 payroll this winter. Now, some of that projected space will be eaten up by arbitration raises and Chase Burns' extension kicking in, but there are also a few option decisions, like Emilio Pagan's, that could bring the amount of available cash even higher.

If we assume that the payroll remains mostly flat in 2027, then this maneuvering with Singer and Stephenson could be huge. Adding to that, the Reds could take advantage of Eugenio Suarez's down year to bring him back at a sizable discount. Since August 1, Suarez has hit a Geno-like .234/.367/.516, proving there's still some life left in that powerful bat.

The trio of Singer, Stephenson, and Suarez cost Cincinnati $34.5 million this year, but if we assume that Singer and Stephenson can be retained for $23 million, and that Suarez could be brought back for $5-$7 million, then the Reds can have three key supporting cast members back while freeing up between $4.5 million and $6.5 million.

There are a lot of things that the club could do with those savings. They could decide to bring Brock Burke back. They could add position player depth. They could look to bring in another veteran starter to compete for the fifth and final rotation spot. The list goes on and on.

Every dollar counts for a team like Cincinnati, and the fact that they can capitalize on some down years means they can take the qualifying offer that they'd typically offer to just one of them to retain their services, split it among two, and leverage some savings in a couple of other areas to free up cash to improve depth. Nick Krall and company have typically struggled with this, but efficiency is the name of the game. That's what this plan accomplishes.

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