Reds should pivot from Luis Robert Jr. to a bat that already thrived in Cincinnati

The trade buzz surrounding the Cincinnati Reds and Luis Robert Jr. is real. Before the Christmas holiday, the Cincinnati Enquirer's Gordon Wittenmyer reported that the Reds were in talks with the Chicago White Sox, and it's possible that a deal for the former All-Star could come to fruition in the coming days or weeks.

Robert has superstar potential, but his injury history and lack of production the past two seasons raises some serious questions about whether or not he'd be the right fit for a Reds roster that's starved for a middle-of-the-order bat.

There's another trade option, however, and the player in question has actually had success in Cincinnati. While the White Sox are looking for pitching help in order to offload Robert and his $20 million salary, the Philadelphia Phillies just want Nick Castellanos off their roster. With all things being equal, swinging a deal for Castellanos might be a better option than trading for Robert.

The Reds should forget Luis Robert Jr. and go after Nick Castellanos instead

Say what you will about Castellanos, but when you put the numbers side-by-side, there's little difference between the Phillies' slugger and the White Sox outfielder Last season, Castellanos had more home runs (17), more RBI (72), a better batting average (.250) and slugging percentage (.400), and higher OPS+ (88) than Robert. Castellanos' -0.8 bWAR is lower than Robert's (1.4 bWAR), much of which is due to defensive performance.

Perhaps the most important number, however, is that of game played. Castellanos has been an ironman for the Phillies since his arrival in 2022, and has averaged over 150 games played during his four seasons in the City of Brotherly Love. The veteran played in all 162 in 2024, and were it not for some dissension between he and manager Rob Thomson, Castellanos likely would've done the same last season.

There is one major area where Castellanos fails to match up with Robert, and that's on defense. Never a Gold Glove-caliber defender, Castellanos has essentially become a DH-only player at this stage of his career. While Robert definitely offers upside with his elite-level defensive play, the cost in terms of prospect capital will be far different.

The White Sox are still dead-set on the idea of getting some quality prospects in return for Robert, and are said to have their eyes on young pitching. The Phillies, on the other hand, are merely looking to dump Castellanos and a fraction of his salary from their 2026 payroll. The Reds could probably offer a low-level prospect and take on one-third of Castellanos' $20 million salary in order to seal a deal with the Phillies.

Robert certainly offers more upside, but he also comes with far more risk. In the past, the Reds have shied away from such deals, and this is another one of those instances when discretion might be the better part of valor.