Reds see old trade temptation resurface ahead of Winter Meetings

You better believe it’s that time again. Bi-annually, tri-annually, lunar-eclipse-ly — whatever schedule you prefer — Luis Robert Jr. has once again appeared on the trade-rumor menu, and of course the Cincinnati Reds are listed as a “perfect fit.”

ESPN’s latest trade-candidate rankings give Robert a 60% chance of being moved this winter, with the San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets and yes, Reds, circled as landing spots. On paper, it tracks: premium center-field athleticism, right-handed pop, years of control. That’s exactly the kind of player a young Reds core should be interested in. 

But that’s the theory version of Luis Robert Jr. The on-field version the last two years looks a lot different.

Luis Robert Jr. rumors are back, but the Reds might finally be past that phase

We’re talking about a .223/.297/.364 slash with an 85 OPS+, and another season where he barely cleared 100 games. The tools are still loud, the upside is still easy to sell, but at some point “upside” just becomes a nice way of saying “you need a telescope to see the production.” Two straight years of “if he stays healthy…” and “if the bat comes around…” is a dangerous bet for a team that actually wants to win the division, not the rumor mill.

And then there’s the price. You know the White Sox are still trying to trade the idea of 2023 Robert, not the guy who’s been grinding through injuries and inconsistency ever since. Whatever dream package they once turned down is basically at the bottom of Lake Michigan now, but they’re going to ask for something in the neighborhood of premium anyway — think a headliner from the Reds’ better prospects, plus more.

For Cincinnati, that’s where this goes from “fun fantasy” to “why are we doing this again?” The Reds already have a crowded position-player mix — a bunch of young bats who are cheap, controllable, and, crucially, not costing you half your farm system.

What this roster really needs is a durable, high-end starter and maybe a boringly reliable on-base bat or two, not another all-or-nothing health gamble whose calling card is “you should’ve seen him three seasons ago.”

Could Robert be a monster in Great American Ball Park if everything clicks? Absolutely. But the Reds are finally in a spot where they don’t have to chase every flashy name that pops loose.

If the bidding turns into a prospect war with the Giants, Phillies and Mets, Cincinnati’s smartest move might be to let somebody else “win” Luis Robert Jr. — and feel pretty good about the trade they didn’t make.