Reds' run differential puts them in some very troubling company

By pretty much every metric, the Cincinnati Reds have had a poor season in 2026. The end game is making the playoffs, and at 74-85 as of September 25, the playoffs won't be in the Reds' future, but a last-place finish in the NL Central will be.

This of course is nothing new. Cincinnati has been stuck in a rut, wallowing in mediocrity for the past 13 years. In terms of this season, was this a case of simple bad luck? Or were the Reds really this bad? An en vogue, catchall stat called run differential provides our answer (sort of).

Entering the play on September 25, the top five teams in run differential — the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, and Atlanta Braves — are all heading to the playoffs. The Reds don't live in that neighborhood. Instead, they ranked in the bottom five, next to also-rans like the Los Angeles Angels, Kansas City Royals, Colorado Rockies, and Athletics.

Cincinnati comes in at -159 following the 7-6 win over the Atlanta Braves on September 24. Objectively, that's a horrid number. It should be noted, though, that run differential isn't the end-all, be-all. For example, the Washington Nationals have a +9 run differential, but are just 1½ games better than the Reds at 75-84.

Point being, a team can post a decent run differential and have a poor record if they blow a lot of one-run games but win a lot of blowouts. A team can also have a negative run differential if they do the opposite. However, once you get to the extremes, it's a pretty spot-on indicator of how well or poorly a club has performed.

The Reds have a poor run differential because they've performed poorly in all facets in 2026

The Reds rank 27th in runs scored with 655. They rank 25th with a .699 OPS. While Cincinnati has hit 211 homers, good for fourth in the league, they still struggle to put up runs because, outside of the dinger, they struggle to get ducks on the pond and exhibit poor situational hitting once when it finally has an opportunity to break a game open.

On the pitching side of things, Reds starters rank 28th in ERA at 4.95. The relievers aren't much better, coming in with a 25th-ranked 4.72 ERA, blowing most of the few leads the starters hand them.

There is no quick fix for this. If Cincinnati is going to turn this around, several things will need to happen. The team does have some talented pieces in place, but those foundational players need a better supporting cast to be brought in around them. That holds true in the lineup, in the rotation, and in the bullpen.

On top of that, the strategy the coaching staff employs and the vision that they have for what winning baseball looks like.

It can be done, but it won't be easy. There's a lot of work to be done, and the Reds are also a bit behind the eight ball due to the strength of the NL Central. With that said, with a concerted effort, the Reds can rise in the run differential rankings in 2027. If that happens, they'll likely rise in the standings, too.

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