Reds’ infuriating offensive stat makes an offseason fix impossible to ignore

Over the winter, the Cincinnati Reds' prime objective was boosting their offense. They finished 2025 ranked 14th in the majors with 716 runs scored, but that was barely enough to sneak into the playoffs, and the bats went silent against the vaunted Los Angeles Dodgers starting rotation.

Fans were told that the problem was a lack of pop in the lineup. It made sense. The Reds ranked 21st in homers with 167 and 21st in slugging with a .391 mark. Adding power was a big reason that the cash-strapped franchise made such a strong play for Kyle Schwarber in free agency, and why the club ultimately reunited with Eugenio Suárez.

This year, Cincinnati has already surpassed last season's home run total, blasting 179 dingers, good for sixth in the league. Suárez hasn't panned out the way they hoped, but Sal Stewart's historic rookie season, plus some firepower from Nathaniel Lowe earlier in the year and JJ Bleday coming alive, has helped the lineup dramatically improve its power production.

So, mission accomplished, right? Not in the slightest. Through 138 games, the Reds have scored 570 runs. That ranks 23rd in MLB and puts them on pace for 670 runs scored in 2026, 46 fewer than last year. Obviously, that's a big reason for the dismal record they've posted this year.

Home run power isn't the problem. The issue is that Cincinnati is woefully bad at driving in runners on third base with less than two outs, doing so just 42.2% of the time, which ranks dead last in the league.

Reds' situational hitting failures should end Chris Valaika's tenure, but more is also needed

In case you need any more explanations as to why the Reds are struggling with situational hitting, they rank dead last with a .217 batting average with runners in scoring position. They don't get the big hit, they don't produce enough sac flies, and they don't get creative and lay down bunts to pressure the defense.

Instead, it seems like everyone is swinging from their heels, trying to score five runs with one swing, which has led to a league-worst 25.6% strikeout rate in RISP situations.

“I believe in the traditional, or whatever you want to call it,” Reds hitting coach Chris Valaika said last year. “There’s always a place for situational hitting. There’s always a place for bunting. If you play to the scoreboard, the game takes care of itself. We keep talking about the right things. (Francona) has been a big champion of the messaging I try to bring with situational hitting. Understanding what the game is asking you. The heartbeat of the game.”

Valaika speaking about the importance of situational hitting and it being a priority for him is incredibly ironic given where we are today. It's a big reason why his seat is scorching hot, and he needs to be relieved of his duties this offseason.

See, what is happening at the big league level is only part of the problem. Valaika is also the Reds' director of hitting, meaning that he's responsible for what's being taught to Cincinnati's youngsters from Louisville all the way down to the Dominican Summer League.

It's no wonder why youngsters like Edwin Arroyo have come up and immediately struggled, or why minor league resets have done nothing for Noelvi Marte. Simply put, the team needs to get Valaika out before he can further damage their pipeline, let alone because of what's going on at the major league level.

Speaking of the major league club, Nick Krall, or whoever is in charge this winter, needs to go shopping for some contact. The Reds have the worst strikeout rate overall in baseball at 25.3%. They have the third-worst batting average on balls in play at .276. It makes sense, as much as we love guys like Elly De La Cruz, he's always been strikeout prone. Ditto for Suárez, and many other hitters on the team.

Additionally, there's a lot of loft in these swings, which, when they connect, lead to homers, but when they don't, there are a lot of lazy fly balls. You can't have a lineup full of the same hitter archetype. Doing so is a recipe for feast-or-famine offense and these sorts of situational frustrations. The Reds need to find a way to add balance and diverse skill sets this winter; otherwise, we'll be in for more of the same in 2027.

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