Reds’ rookie Sal Stewart is exposing the biggest flaw in baseball's favorite stat

Wins Above Replacement — better known as WAR — has become the gold standard of statistics used to judge modern day baseball players. Whether you prefer fWAR from FanGraphs or bWAR from Baseball Reference, the results are the same. The stat essentially measures how many wins a player is worth compared to a replacement-level player.

But a recent social media post has sparked debate, not only about the stat itself, but the National League Rookie of the Year race between Cincinnati Reds' All-Star Sal Stewart and St. Louis Cardinals infielder JJ Wetherholt.

The post asked, "Who ya got for ROY?" and contained a side-by-side comparison from Baseball Reference between Stewart and Wetherholt. The Reds' rookie outpaced Wetherholt in almost every meaningful category except one.

Stewart is currently worth 1.2 bWAR while Wetherholt is miles ahead with a 4.1 bWAR despite trailing the Reds slugger in home runs, RBI, stolen bases, slugging percentage, OPS, and OPS+. The Cardinals rookie maintains a slight edge over Stewart in batting average and on-base percentage, and has one more base hit.

There's little doubt that the chase for the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year is a two-horse race between Stewart and Wetherholt. Many experts and pundits give Wetherholt the slight edge, and there's little doubt that Cincinnati's win-loss record has a negative effect on Stewart's chances to take home the trophy.

But to pretend that there's a chasm between the two rookies is downright ludicrous. By the way, for those who prefer FanGraphs, the point still stands. Stewart has been worth 1.5 fWAR this season while Wetherholt registers 3.8 fWAR.

One stat is being used to justify JJ Wetherholt over Sal Stewart in the Rookie of the Year race

The reason for the vast difference between the two is defense. Wetherholt plays a premium position, and does it very well. He's committed just two errors at second base all season (.995 FLD%) and is worth 12 defensive runs saved (DRS) and 17 outs above average (OAA).

Stewart has been tasked with playing both first and third base this season for the Reds; the former is a position he never even played until midway through the 2025 season. In 2026, he's committed just two errors between the two positions and is worth a combined -2 DRS and -1 OAA. So it's not as if Stewart is a poor defender at either position. He's average.

WAR tends to prop up a player's defensive abilities; maybe even to a fault. Reds fans have watched Ke'Bryan Hayes flash his Gold Glove defense at third base for the past year and a half, but his offensive numbers are so putrid, it hardly bears repeating.

Since being picked up at the 2025 trade deadline, Hayes has hit just .193/.263/.276 with a 51 OPS+, and yet he's still worth 0.0 bWAR. No amount of elite-level defensive plays can elevate that type of performance to a replacement-level player. None!

The NL Rookie of the Year debate will come down to the wire, and a number of elements will weigh into the voter's decision. But if Stewart finishes the year with 30-plus home runs and over 100 RBIs, it's going to be difficult to deny him the honor. If WAR is the deciding factor, however, Reds fans better prepare for disappointment.

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