Reds risk ruining 2026 season if they follow Orioles’ failed blueprint

Though some may disagree, the Cincinnati Reds' 2025 season should be deemed a success. While a number of fans will point to the New York Mets' collapse as the only reason Cincinnati made its first trip to the postseason since 2020, the fact of the matter is that Terry Francona guided the Reds to a strong finish and their playoff appearance (though brief) gives the organization something to build on next season.

However, the Baltimore Orioles were in a similar spot about a year ago. The O's surprisingly fell to the Kansas City Royals during the 2024 AL Wild Card Series, and entered 2025 looking to return to the playoffs and build off their success from the year prior.

Unfortunately, Baltimore's highly-touted roster was unable to put together a winning campaign, and the Orioles finished the year in the AL East basement with a 75-87 record. What can Nick Krall and the Reds front office learn from the Orioles mistakes during the 2024-25 offseason?

Reds risk ruining 2026 season if they follow Orioles’ failed blueprint

The Orioles went into the 2024-25 offseason with an opportunity to solidify their young roster and contend with the New York Yankees for AL East supremacy. Instead, Orioles' president of baseball operations Mike Elias allowed his frontline starter (Corbin Burnes) to leave via free agency, and tried to offset the loss with the additions of Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton. That didn't work out so well.

Baltimore was also banking on internal growth from pitchers like Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez. Instead, both pitchers spent significant time on the injured list last season, and Rodriguez (dealing with a lat strain and later elbow surgery) never stepped onto the mound at all.

The O's inked former St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Tyler O'Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million deal and immediately regretted it. O'Neill only appeared in just 54 games and hit a meager .199/.292/.392 with only nine home runs. The O's also signed Andrew Kittredge and Ramón Laureano, both of whom were traded at the July 31 deadline. Neither player fetched a decent return — at least not one that will be part of Baltimore's success in 2026.

The Orioles went into the 2025 season relying on improvements from their young core, but instead saw players like Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday, Adley Rutschman, and Ryan Mountcastle regress. Were it not for the outstanding pitching from Trevor Rogers and the All-Star level play from Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore may have lost even more games in 2025.

The Reds must be aggressive during the 2025-26 offseason

Which brings us back to the Reds. Cincinnati and Baltimore have been closely linked over the past few seasons, with many MLB experts and pundits commenting on the similarities between the two organizations. Both clubs operate on a low budget, have a superstar shortstop, possess a talented pipeline filled with young prospects, and have a rabid fanbase who's aching to win.

That's exactly why the Reds can't just rest on their laurels this offseason. Talk of trading Hunter Greene has worked its way into the offseason conversation but, losing your frontline starter is a dangerous game — something the O's found out last season.

Krall has already mentioned needing to see improvements from some of the Reds young core, and while that's necessary, the Orioles just proved that hoping for key developments from your young stars and actually getting next-level production are two different things entirely.

This is a crucial offseason for Krall and Reds front office. Cincinnati only has three players under contract, an elite starting rotation, a future Hall of Fame manager, and a superstar in the making (Elly De La Cruz). The Reds window is wide open, but Krall and Co. need to do more than they've done in previous offseasons to help give Terry Francona the best roster possible.

The O's let their ace walk, added around the edges, and assumed their young talent would prosper. The Reds can't afford to make the same mistakes this winter.