Eye-opening stat Reds can’t ignore suddenly makes a Hunter Greene trade possible

Will the Cincinnati Reds trade Hunter Greene this offseason? That seems like a long shot, but fans shouldn't be so quick to dismiss the idea altogether. While Greene is arguably the best starting pitcher on the entire Reds staff, he logged a career-low 107⅔ innings pitched last season, as he spent considerable time on the injured list for the third straight season.

Unfortunately for Greene, his worst start of the year came during the playoffs and he'll have to carry that three-inning, five-run performance into the offseason. Greene was lit up like a Christmas tree during the Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The fireballer gave up three home runs and was yanked after just 65 pitches.

Oddly enough, the Reds were actually a better team (record-wise) when Greene was on the injured list this past season. Cincinnati owned a 39-33 record while Greene occupied a spot on the IL.

Would the Reds even consider trading Hunter Greene this offseason?

The notion that the Reds are a better team when Greene is not on the bump isn't necessarily accurate. Greene is widely considered by most MLB experts and pundits to be one of the top-10 starting pitchers in the major leagues. When he's on his game, the 26-year-old can match any of the sport's elite arms — just look at the end-of-the-year showdown between Greene and likely NL Cy Young Award-winner Paul Skenes.

The problem with Greene comes down to durability. Through his first four big-league seasons, Greene's averaged just under 23 starts and and less than 125 innings pitched. Greene's salary is also set to spike in 2027.

This season, Greene took home just $6.3 million, and he's only slated to make $8.3 million next year. Once the following season begins, however, Greene's salary increases to $15.3 million (2027) and then $16.3 million (2028). Those are still incredibly affordable numbers for an ace-caliber pitcher like Greene, but his effectiveness has to be judged based on his availability.

Heading into next season, the Reds are starved for offense. While the dream scenario of Kyle Schwarber returning to Cincinnati to play for his hometown Reds is fun to think about, there's probably about a 0.5% chance that it actually happens. The easiest way for the Reds to improve the roster this offseason — much like it was last winter — will be through trades.

The Reds' pitching depth is their greatest strength, and Greene (on a bargain contract) is one of their best trade chips. Brady Singer (who's in the final year of arbitration-eligibility) and Nick Lodolo (who's dealt with injury concerns of his own) could also be tempting to pitcher-needy organizations this offseason.

If the Reds are going to look to swing a trade in order to bolster the lineup this offseason, the most likely scenario would be to use some of their prospect capital. Young players like Edwin Arroyo, Cam Collier, and others could fetch quite the return.

But even with all the young talent in the farm system, Greene is arguably Cincinnati's greatest asset. It's difficult to actually see the Reds trading their All-Star starter this offseason, but if another team makes them an offer they can't refuse, Cincinnati has proven they can win without Greene on the roster.