Reds risk overpaying for the one bullpen arm who actually fits

The MLB offseason hasn't officially begun, but that doesn't mean that the Cincinnati Reds are sitting on their hands at the moment. There's little doubt that president of baseball operations Nick Krall and the rest of the Reds front office are tirelessly poring over stats and setting their vision for how to upgrade the roster heading into the winter.

Last offseason, one of the biggest internal decisions the Reds had to make was whether or not to retain Nick Martinez. In the end, Cincinnati extended a qualifying offer to the right-hander and Martinez accepted the Reds' generous $21 million pay day. Cincinnati will be staring down a similar situation this offseason, though it won't come at such a steep price.

Reds closer Emilio Pagán is arguably the team's most important free agent this offseason. But, at 35 years old, the notion of negotiating a long-term extension isn't as cut and dry as it may seem. Pagán has spoken about his desire to return to Cincinnati in 2026, but can the Reds afford to meet his contract demands? The better question might be, can they afford not to?

Reds risk overpaying for Emilio Pagán, but letting him walk could be even more costly

Pagán posted a career-best 32 saves in 2025. He also drew rave reviews from Terry Francona and his teammates. The veteran became one of the key voices during the season, and his 30% strikeout rate paired with a 2.88 ERA are nothing to sneeze at. Pagán answered the bell every single time the bullpen phone rang, and was third on the team in appearances (70) behind only Tony Santillan (80) and Scott Barlow (75).

But after signing a two-year, $16 million deal with the Reds during the 2023-24 offseason, Pagán will be looking for pay raise this winter — and he's certainly entitled to it. One would have to assume that a repeat of his previous deal, maybe one with some added incentives, would be the absolute floor Pagán would be willing to accept this offseason. Can Cincinnati afford to hand over a two-year, $18 million deal to an aging bullpen arm?

Given the Reds' backend depth, the first response is probably, no. Fans saw this season that players like Santillan, Connor Phillips, and even Graham Ashcraft could likely take up the mantle of closer in 2026. But experience matters, and going into a crucial season without veteran leadership in the the bullpen is certainly a risk. While Santillan, Phillips, and Ashcraft all have top-tier stuff, there's a big difference between pitching in the eighth inning and toeing the rubber in the ninth with the game on the line.

Look for the Reds to attempt to re-sign Pagán before he officially hits the free agent market. If the two sides can't find common ground, it wouldn't be surprising to see Pagán give the Reds a chance to match whatever type of deal he can find on the open market. Keeping Pagán heading into 2026 should be a priority, but he's far from a sign-at-all-costs type of player.