Reds quietly facing a difficult timeline with their most important prospect

Tyler Stephenson's impending trip to free agency in 2026 remains a confounding conundrum for the Cincinnati Reds, who have short- and long-term plans behind the dish, but they lack a legitimate medium-term option if/when Stephenson leaves.

The 29-year-old backstop has been really good in some seasons (134 wRC+ in 2022) and really poor in others (85 wRC+ in 2023). His oscillating bat and opposite-ends-of-the-spectrum defensive metrics (95th percentile in Blocks Above Average, 13th percentile in framing runs) make the prospect of a long-term extension less palatable, but trusting Jose Trevino to step into a starting role at age 34 probably isn't the best idea, either.

The likelihood of a trade has probably dwindled due to the Reds' lack of alternative options, but every day the team doesn't extend Stephenson, it's becoming more and more clear that he isn't the catcher of the future.

Luckily, there may be an in-house solution to this problem in the form of top prospect Alfredo Duno... but only if he can make a seismic leap at 20 years old this upcoming season.

Are Reds putting too many eggs in the Alfredo Duno basket?

In case you're somehow unfamiliar with Duno, allow me to summarize him in one sentence: He's a teenager who posted a .948 OPS and 163 wRC+ in 2025. He's got prolific potential with the bat, and after hitting 18 home runs and stealing six bases in 113 games this year, he certainly has Reds fans salivating about his future.

The issue with all of this? There are concerns about his ability to stick at catcher in the long term, with scouts praising his excellent throwing arm, but raising serious concerns over his size (6'2, 210 lbs) and pop time.

There have been stout backstops who have had long careers behind the plate, but the Reds' starting rotation is so good that it will demand a certain caliber of defensive catcher. Is Duno, who hasn't even played a game at High-A Dayton yet, really going to be able to answer all of these questions while rising the minor league ranks in 2026?

Trevino's presence is key here. He's under contract for two more seasons with a club option for 2028. He's no longer quite the defensive savant he once was, but a veteran with his track record (Gold Glove in 2022) and proclivity for calling good games behind the plate will be key moving forward if Duno really is Plan A at catcher.

Asking a 20-year-old catcher to climb from Single-A to the brink of the major leagues at a position that is notoriously slow to develop may just be a step too far. There's no doubting Duno's raw potential, but if he isn't ready for the big leagues by 2027, Trevino shouldn't be tasked with handling a starter's workload behind the dish.

To be clear, there's still time to find a bridge between Stephenson and Duno. But, as far as future problems go, this is a big one the Reds need to keep their eye on.