Reds playoff push could now depend on chaotic tiebreaker scenarios nobody wanted

After losing to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, the Cincinnati Reds now sit at 80-77 on the season and are one game behind the New York Mets in the race for the final NL Wild Card spot. To make matter worse for the Reds, the Arizona Diamondbacks overcame a 4-0 deficit to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and are now tied with Cincinnati in the standings.

After dropping eight of their last 10 games, the San Francisco Giants have all but been eliminated form the NL Wild Card conversation. In fact, the St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins now have a better record than San Fran.

The Giants' collapse effectively makes this a three-horse race heading into the final five games of the regular season. But unlike in years past, if the Reds finish the year tied with one of the Mets or D-backs (or both), there is no Game 163. Ever since the MLB Postseason was expanded in 2022, there are a new set of tiebreaker rules that decide who moves on the playoffs and who stays home.

Reds Playoff Odds: Cincy hold decisive advantage over Mets and D-backs in chase for the final NL Wild Card spot

Head-to-head record is the first determining factor when it comes to tiebreaker scenarios. Thankfully, the Reds own a winning record against both the Mets and the D-backs. Cincinnati was 4-2 against Arizona this season and won 4-of-6 against New York. If the Reds are tied with one of either the Mets or the D-backs, Cincy is going to the playoffs.

Things get a bit more complex if the Reds, Mets, and D-backs all finish the 2025 regular season with identical records. Because the three teams don't have identical records against one another, there are two possibilities to break the tie. But either way, the Reds win.

Because Cincinnati has a better record against both New York and Arizona, the Reds would qualify for the postseason over the Mets and Diamondbacks. If no club had a better record, which is not the case, the teams would've been ranked by their overall winning percentage amongst the other clubs combined.

Unfortunately for the Reds, they now have a game to make up in order to match the Mets' record. The Mets defeated the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday night, and took a one-game lead in the wild card race. The Reds have some catching up to do.

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