Reds might actually sneak into the playoffs thanks to a surprising MLB lifeline

After back-to-back series wins over the New York Mets and San Diego Padres, the Cincinnati Reds are very much alive in the race for the final NL Wild Card spot. The Reds received top-tier pitching and timely hitting over the last five games, and heading into play on Thursday, Cincinnati is tied with the San Francisco Giants, and are just two back of New York in the Wild Card standings. The Reds are off on Thursday, but a Mets' loss to the Philadelphia Phillies could shrink the gap to 1½ games by Friday.

The Reds now face the harsh reality that after 162 games they could be tied with one (or two) of the National League contenders. Unlike the days of yesteryear, there is no 163rd game to decide a team's playoff fate. With the expansion of the postseason in 2022 came new set of tiebreaker rules, and surprisingly, those may actually favor the Reds.

The rules themselves are quite nuanced, and if the Reds want to leave nothing to chance, they need to finish the regular season with a better record than the Mets and the Giants. If they're tied, however, there's a glimmer of hope.

Reds might actually sneak into the MLB playoffs thanks to the tiebreaker rules

As of Thursday, September 11, no team in Major Leauge Baseball has officially qualified for the postseason. But for all intents and purposes, the Padres, Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Chicago Cubs will be likely participants in the MLB Postseason. The Reds, Mets, and Giants are jockeying for that final playoff spot with about two weeks remaining.

If there's a tie between two teams, head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker used. This is a great scenario for Cincinnati if they're tied with New York. The Reds took 4-of-6 from the Mets this season, and would snag that final playoff spot. The Reds and Giants, however, split their six games this season, meaning they'd go to the next tiebreaker scenario.

After head-to-head record, MLB decides playoff participants based on intra-division records. In other words, how did the Reds stack up against the NL Central and how did the Giants fare against the NL West? Currently, the Reds are 17-22 versus their division foes and the Giants have gone 18-21 against teams in the NL West.

After Cincinnati's upcoming series against the Athletics, the Reds' remaining 13 games all come against NL Central teams. San Fran has seven games remaining against the Dodgers, three against the Arizona Diamondbacks, and close out the season with three against the Colorado Rockies.

In a three-way tie with the Mets and Giants, the MLB tiebreaker rules acutally favor the Reds

In short, if the Reds take care of business over the final few weeks, chances are good the intra-division tiebreaker could work in the favor. After that, MLB breaks the tie by inter-division record, the last half of intra-league games, and the last half of intra-league games plus one. All of that is to say, if we reach this point of the tiebreaker scenarios, one fanbase will be quite upset.

The big one, however, comes if all three teams are tied after 162. If the Reds, Mets, and Giants have identical records after the final day of the regular season, the clubs will be ranked by their overall winning percentage amongst each other.

At this point in the season, all three teams have played each other, meaning the record they have is the record they'll keep. The Reds are 7-5 (.583), the Giants are 5-7 (.416), and the Mets are 6-6 (.500). That means, Reds fans, if all three teams are tied at the end of the season, Cincinnati owns the tiebreaker.

While the tiebreaker scenarios seem to favor the Reds, the Cincinnati faithful would prefer to avoid the drama and just have a better record than both the Mets and Giants. The Reds' playoff odds jumped to 10.1% on Thursday — ahead of the Giants (6.5%) and behind the Mets (83.5%). A lot can happen in the final 16 games. Buckle up, Reds fans.

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