Reds playoff path explained and why Mets and D-backs should be nervous

The Cincinnati Reds — thanks in large part to Noelvi Marte's outstanding catch on Thursday afternoon — are still alive in the hunt for the final NL Wild Card spot. The Reds are set to begin a three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers to finish the season, and trail the New York Mets by just one game.

The Reds are one of three teams still in the playoff chase. With their win on Thursday over the Chicago Cubs, the Mets officially eliminated the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals. But even after a shutout loss at the hands of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Arizona Diamondbacks are still in the mix.

That sets up a critical slate of games this weekend. In addition to the Reds and Brewers facing off in Milwaukee, the Mets head to South Beach for a three-game set against the Miami Marlins and the D-backs will play three games against their division rivals, the San Diego Padres.

Reds playoff path explained and why Mets and D-backs should be nervous

The Reds own the tiebreaker over both the Mets and D-backs. That's a crucial piece of the puzzle. If Cincinnati is tied with one or both of New York or Arizona at season's end, they'll be playing baseball into October.

The Marlins are doing their best to derail the Mets' playoff hopes by sending their three best starters to the hill this weekend. Former Cy Young Award-winner Sandy Alcanatara will toe the rubber on Friday against Mets' starter Brandon Sproat. The Fish will then send Eury Pérez to the mound on Saturday and Edward Cabrera will be on the bump for Sunday's season finale. If the Marlins steal at least one game, the Reds are still alive.

The chart above shows three different scenarios in which the Reds can clinch a trip to the MLB Postseason. Cincinnati can't just sit back and coast into the playoffs — they have to win at least one game against Milwaukee, and more realistically, need to win at least 2-of-3. The Reds can't just match the Mets' record over the final three games, they have to be at least one game better.

The margin for error is slim. Heading into play on Friday, the Reds have a 19.7% chance to make the playoffs, while the Mets' odds sit at 78.2% according to FanGraphs. The D-backs need a miracle, with just a 2.1% chance to make it back to the postseason.

Buckle up, Reds fans!

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