Reds owner's comments foreshadow a tough Elly De La Cruz decision

During the Cincinnati Reds' end-of-season press conference, a few interesting nuggets came to light. Owner Phil Castellini threw his support behind Nick Krall and his embattled regime, suggesting that the two sides have made nice after some back-and-forth sniping, where Krall claimed that the organization wouldn't let him make certain moves, while ownership consistently asked why the club isn't having Brewers-like results.

From there, the conversation turned to Elly De La Cruz. The star shortstop is a topic of conversation because he just leveled up again, turning in his first 30-30 season of his career. Now set for his first go-around in arbitration, the 24-year-old is projected to see his salary rise nearly ten-fold, from $800,000 in 2026 to potentially $7.9 million or more in 2027.

That has folks wondering about his future, which was a point Castellini sort of addressed, as De La Cruz will only become more of a budget buster moving forward.

"Those types of decisions have to be in the construct of a total strategic plan for this franchise," Castellini said, while also calling De La Cruz a "once-in-a-lifetime talent," but deferring the specifics of any potential extension plans to Krall.

De La Cruz, a Scott Boras client, has already rebuffed the Reds once after Cincinnati offered him a deal that would have surpassed Joey Votto's 10-year, $225 million contract for the largest in franchise history. It's unclear what the full terms were, but the total value of the offer wasn't thought to be much more than the nearly a quarter of a billion that Votto received, and in present-day value would have been worth less.

Votto himself has posited that De La Cruz could receive a 12-year, $700 million contract and that's not the first time that the $700 million figure has been bandied about regarding the superstar shortstop. There are only two players to reach that $700 million plateau: Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto.

Surely the Reds' offer was nowhere near $700 million, and while De La Cruz getting that much will depend on health and production over the next three seasons, it's likely that he gets an astronomical deal that could eclipse the $500 million mark at minimum.

These are numbers that are in no way possible for Cincinnati to pay while also being able to fill out the roster with competent, complementary pieces, much less find another superstar to pair with De La Cruz. So, that brings up the question: at what point do the Reds decide they can't pay De La Cruz and trade him in order to extract maximum value?

Reds face tough choice — they can't trade Elly De La Cruz too early, but must avoid a Tarik Skubal-like situation

If coming to grips with trading a superstar who hasn't even entered his prime wasn't hard enough, trying to figure out the best time to move him is even tougher. De La Cruz made massive strides in 2026. A prime example was his improvement against left-handed pitching, where he came into 2026 with a career .607 OPS against southpaws and then went on to put up a .990 mark against lefties this year.

Assuming he continues his upward trajectory, he's going to become a perennial MVP candidate as early as next season.

To that end, it might seem like the ideal course of action would be to trade him this offseason and maximize the three years of team control he has remaining to generate a haul. He's ahead of Cincinnati's other cornerstone pieces, Chase Burns and Sal Stewart, in the arbitration process meaning that getting prospects for him now might create a more tenable timeline for sustainable contention. Furthermore, the Reds were able to extend Burns and Stewart has indicated that he'd be willing to sign a long-term deal to secure his future with the franchise.

The problem is that it would be impossible to get equivalent value for De La Cruz now. Unless a team were willing to flip another young superstar in a similar position regarding team control, if one even exists, there isn't an even match. Even so, that would just give Cincy the same conundrum but with a different player. The prospect cost would be so astronomical that no club would even entertain it.

On the other hand, waiting too long, as the Tigers did with Tarik Skubal, would create a situation where the Reds would lose leverage. De La Cruz's final year of team control is 2029, meaning that if they were to try to deal him then, opposing teams could force their hand and have them staring down the possibility of losing him for nothing other than a comp pick, as the Los Angeles Angels did with Ohtani.

Therefore, the "best time" to deal him might be at the 2028 trade deadline. That way, Cincinnati can maximize the desperation of a contender while also ensuring that the acquiring team has another year with De La Cruz in the fold. At the same time, the Reds would have the leverage to tell other teams that if their offers aren't up to par, they'll hold onto him into the 2028-2029 offseason or even the 2029 trade deadline.

Even so, you reach a point where a single player becomes so valuable that it's nearly impossible to create a trade package that matches his worth without decimating the acquiring team. De La Cruz is trending in that direction. Still, the sweet spot to maximize his value seems to be dealing him with a year and a half of control remaining.

That means the Reds must do everything in their power to maximize their window with De La Cruz now, because the future isn't promised. If they can manage to thread that very difficult needle, they might find that they're able to rip off an impressive run of contention. Nick Krall, this is where you earn your paycheck.

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