Reds’ 2027 payroll gets surprising boost despite Elly De La Cruz's projected raise

Elly De La Cruz will be handsomely rewarded this offseason. The Cincinnati Reds superstar will be arbitration eligible for the first time in his career, and the annual estimates from MLB Trade Rumors revealed that De La Cruz could see his salary balloon to upwards of $8 million in 2027.

The exact projection is $7.9 million, which is just a little less than Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson took home during his first year of arbitration eligibility in 2026 ($8.5 million). De La Cruz is represented by Scott Boras, so don't be surprised if the Reds' shortstop receives an even bigger pay day than Henderson did last season.

Nevertheless, despite the fact that De La Cruz's salary is expected to be multiplied 10-fold, the overall arbitration projections for this year's class are actually lower than what Cincinnati paid last season. The 12 players listed are estimated to cost $42.7 million, but the Reds paid $43.5 million to their arbitration-eligible players last season.

MLB Trade Rumors 2027 arbitration projections for the Reds are as follows:

Looking over that list of players, it's difficult to see any that could be non-tendered next month. Two consecutive seasons of subpar production from Matt McLain's might put him on thin ice, but his defense at second base will likely help to preserve his spot on the Reds' offseason roster.

Reds' 2027 arbitration estimates are lower than last year's salaries

The Reds had a dozen players who were in line for arbitration raises last winter. Brady Singer was the headliner and pocketed almost $13 million. Tyler Stephenson won his arbitration case and collected $6.8 million. The Reds also dished out a combined $5.725 million to outfielders TJ Friedl and Will Benson, both of whom were DFA'd and recently elected free agency.

If the Reds' arbitration salaries are essentially the same as last year's numbers, where does the rest of Cincinnati's payroll stand heading into the winter? Not as bad as you might think.

Assuming Emilio Pagán exercises his $10 million player-option for 2027, and the Reds decline their end of the mutual-options for Eugenio Suárez ($16 million) and Pierce Johnson ($8 million), Cincinnati has roughly $40.35 million committed to payroll next season. Add to that the $42.7 million in arbitration estimates, and you get $83 million. Sadly, $15.33 million of that is dedicated to Hunter Greene, who's not expected to pitch next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

But the $83 million only accounts for 17 players. Sal Stewart, Connor Phillips, Rhett Lowder, Carlos Jorge, Héctor Rodriguez, Juan Brito, Luis Mey, Chase Petty, Zach McCambley, Carson Spiers, Julian Garcia, Edwin Arroyo, Noelvi Marte, Zach Maxwell, and José Franco are all pre-arb eligible, meaning they'll be making the league minimum and bring the roster total to 30.

A conservative estimate for the Reds 13 pre-arb players would add another $15 million to the bottom line, and bring the grand total to about $98 million. Cincinnati's estimated payroll last season was $129 million. If that number remains the same in 2027, the Reds have about $32 million to play with.

Of course, the Reds have a lot of holes to fill, including at least one more starting pitcher, if not two. With Tyler Stephenson expected to leave via free agency, the Reds will need another catcher. Cincinnati's bullpen needs reinforcements, and the lineup severely underperformed last season.

So while these arbitration estimates give the Reds more financial flexibility than most fans probably assumed, they're still lacking the type of resources big-market clubs would use to fill in the gaps. Nick Krall and Brad Meador will have to get creative this winter, and fans could see a number of trades and low-end free agent signings as they look to piecemeal a roster together.

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