Reds Opening Day starter feels obvious, but Terry Francona hasn't tipped his hand

With Hunter Greene unlikely to be part of the Cincinnati Reds Opening Day roster, manager Terry Francona will need to choose a new starting pitcher for the first game of the season. Greene was the presumed favorite to take on that honor for the second year in a row, but he's been shut down from throwing while undergoing testing for an elbow injury.

Francona's choice comes down to two pitchers. It'll be one of the two left-handers, Andrew Abbott or Nick Lodolo. The former was an All-Star last season, and is already on schedule to get the ball on Opening Day. And while Abbott feels like the natural (and most likely) pick to take the mound against the Boston Red Sox on March 26, Lodolo has had the better camp so far.

Don't sleep on Nick Lodolo to be the Reds Opening Day starter

Lodolo is a former first-round pick with wipe-out stuff, but he always seems to be the forgotten star among the group of Reds starters. Greene and fellow fireballer Chase Burns light up the radar gun, Abbott's five-pitch mix continually keeps the opposition off balance, and Rhett Lowder has been the talk of Reds camp through the first few weeks of spring training.

But Lodolo is coming off arguably his best season in the big leagues. The lanky left-hander was 9-8 in 2025 with a 3.33 ERA in 29 games, including 28 starts. He struck out 156 batters over a career-high 156⅔ innings pitched while only walking 4.8% of the hitters he faced. Lodolo's 32.8% chase rate was among the best in league last season, ranking among the top-10% according to Baseball Savant.

The swing-and-miss stuff that Lodolo possesses is one area where he easily outshines his fellow lefty. While Abbott typically pitches to contact, Lodolo uses his overpowering arsenal to blow away the opposition. He's made just one start this spring, but struck out four of the eight batters he faced.

Based on the every-fifth-day rotational philosophy, Abbott is lined up to pitch on Opening Day. If he stays on schedule, he'll have three more spring starts before taking the ball against the Red Sox later this month. One could easily see Abbott taking the ball for Game 1, Lodolo getting the call for Game 2, and Brady Singer starting the series finale on Sunday.

But the decision ultimately lies with Francona and the Reds coaching staff. Who's it going to be?