Reds' offseason optimism clashes with surprising 2026 playoff odds

FanGraphs isn't exactly enthusiastic about the Cincinnati Reds' chances to return to the MLB Postseason in 2026. The playoff odds calculator gives the Reds just a 19.5% chance to play in October, which ranks 11th in the Senior Circuit.

The Reds' playoff odds come in well below a trio of NL West teams. The San Francisco Giants (37.2%), Arizona Diamondbacks (29.3%), and San Diego Padres (24.5%) all have better odds than Cincinnati to be part of October baseball. Even the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have an illogical 42.5% chance to make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2015, have better odds than the Reds.

The Reds playoffs odds are lower than most fans might expect

It's one thing to acknowledge that the Los Angeles Dodgers — who should easily surpass 100 wins this season — have a 99.2% chance to make the playoffs. It's even fair to defend the Chicago Cubs' odds (43.5%) to win the NL Central — which is more than twice the Milwaukee Brewers' (20.3%) and nearly five times greater than the Reds' (9.0%). But to assume that the Pirates — who haven't had a winning season in over a decade — have more than twice the odds to make it to the postseason than the Reds, is ridiculous.

Most fans know that these calculators and projection systems are far from infallible. Just before Opening Day last year, the Reds were projected to finish with a 78-84 record, with playoff odds of just 21.4% (also below the Pirates). Cincinnati took that snub to heart, winning 83 games and snagging the final NL Wild Card over the New York Mets — whose odds to make the 2025 postseason were 62.4% before the season began.

With the additions of Eugenio Suárez, JJ Bleday, and Dane Myers, plus Pierce Johnson, Caleb Ferguson, and Brock Burke, there's no reason to expect the Reds to lose more games in 2026 than they did in 2025. While the Reds may not be true World Series contenders, this team is no longer among the bottom-feeders in the National League, and deserve more respect heading into the regular season.