Reds must hope Justin Lebron's bat separates him from this MLB comparison

A year after selecting toolsy shortstop Steele Hall in the first round, the Cincinnati Reds were back at it again, taking uber-athletic University of Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron with their 2026 first-round pick. Boy, do they ever have a type!

Lebron runs like the wind and has all the tools necessary to not only stick, but excel defensively at shortstop. Sounds great, but at least one analyst has a frightening comparison for the youngster.

MLB Network's Harold Reynolds called Lebron "a quarterback playing shortstop" before comparing him to St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn. The good is that Winn was a 2025 Gold Glover at short. The bad is he's hitting .243/.314/.332 this season and owns a career .250/.306/.367. In the midst of his third full season in the majors. Winn's power has declined every season, with his ISO falling from .148 in 2024 to .110 last season to .089 so far this year.

So while Lebron's athletic profile is similar to Winn's, and that's a good thing on the field and on the bases, there are questions about his bat. This season, he hit just .229/.328/.413 in SEC play, and that type of performance from a three-year collegiate starter against top-tier competition is concerning.

There's reason to believe the Reds can maximize Justin Lebron's bat

The draft experts don't view Lebron as a glove-first prospect, though. In fact, he was ranked much higher than his draft position, commonly being mocked to go No. 11 by Jonathan Mayo and No. 12 by Jim Callis in the final MLB Pipeline mock draft.

He was ranked by MLB Pipeline as the No. 9 prospect in the class, with his makeup and work ethic being touted as selling points. He seems like a dedicated and coachable kid, so it looks like he should respond well to the Reds' efforts to level out his swing.

He's also noted for having well-above-average raw power, so he might not be a slap-hitting speedster like Winn and instead develop more towards a 30-30 ceiling. He stole 42 bases over 43 attempts this year in Tuscaloosa, which bodes well for that part of his game translating. Now it comes down to refining his approach, eliminating the holes in his swing, and tapping into his power potential.

In many ways, perhaps a more apt comparison would be Reds' top prospect Tyson Lewis, who also has loud tools but questions about how his uber-aggressive, hole-filled swing will translate. Lewis has had his struggles, but he's also had his thrilling moments and appears to be turning the corner.

The bottom line is that Lebron is the definition of a boom-or-bust prospect. He has legit superstar upside and a strong defensive floor. The bat will be the determining factor as to where he ultimately lands. The Reds believe in his ability to hit, so now all we can do is sit back and be patient as they attempt to mold this intriguing lump of clay.

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