Reds may pass on Tyler Stephenson extension and it has nothing to do with durability

Whether or not the Cincinnati Reds extend catcher Tyler Stephenson has been one of the questions floating in the background of the offseason. The backstop will be entering his final year under contract heading into next season, but the long-term deal with Jose Trevino and Stephenson’s injury-marred season have muddied the waters. Stephenson’s injuries and defensive weaknesses, though, may not be the biggest barriers to a deal. Rather, his approach at the plate may turn the Reds away.

Until this season, Stephenson has been one of the key bats in the Reds’ lineup. Only Elly De La Cruz had a better OPS last season, and since Stephenson became a starter in 2021, no other player has donned a Reds uniform more often.

That blend of stability and offensive production is rare for catchers. However, Stephenson also trails only De La Cruz in total strikeouts since 2021, and that free-swinging approach could be the thing that quashes any hope for Stephenson’s future in Cincinnati.

Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson’s high strikeout rate may scuffle any chance at an extension.

Reds manager Terry Francona has little patience for players that chase hits, as he told Jeimer Candelario earlier this year. Stephenson has been doing more chasing (and whiffing) than ever this year. His strikeout rate has climbed to 33.9%, and while his walk rate is also at an all-time high, failing to put the ball in play and slinking back to the dugout results in nothing but disappointment for a player and a team.

There’s no telling how much of Stephenson’s high strikeout rate can be blamed on his injuries. Missing substantial time certainly hasn’t helped him find his groove, but it’s more than just a rhythm problem. Stephenson is just swinging through pitches. He makes contact with pitches in the zone just 77.3% of the time this season. The league average is 82.1%, and his mark was 86.3% in 2024.

Luckily, Stephenson has one more year to figure things out, and the Reds have more time to evaluate and potentially offer a deal. If Stephenson reduces his strikeouts and returns to his 2024 form, there may be a path to an extension, but if he continues to whiff, look for Stephenson to be gone at the end of 2026, if not sooner.

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