Reds insider hints that Andrew Abbott's roster spot isn't as secure as it seems

Between trading for Brady Singer and re-signing Nick Martinez, the Cincinnati Reds’ rotation is a bit cramped (even with the news on Tuesday of Rhett Lowder's minor setback). Add in the half a dozen prospects expected to make a run at the bigs this season, and the opportunities dry up even further.

Still, it comes as a surprise that MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon left Andrew Abbott off his initial Opening Day roster prediction. The insider’s insight may be a sign of trouble for the lefty.

Abbott has held his own in his first two years in the majors. In fact, Abbott and Hunter Greene were the only Reds starters to record a sub-4.00 ERA and start 25 games last year. Unfortunately, he missed the last month of the season with a left shoulder strain, but he has been back with the team and traveling with the Reds Caravan early this winter.

Some pundits seem to think that Andrew Abbott will be left out in the cold this spring.

Perhaps Sheldon is being swayed by that shoulder injury, but Greene and Nick Lodolo hit the IL late in the season and appear to have locked up their spots. Instead, this seems to be a classic case of underestimation. Sure, the projections indicate a regression. (It’s incredibly unlikely, for example, that Abbott will maintain the 82.9% LOB rate that he posted last year.) However, the projections also indicate that he could be the third-most valuable starter on the squad behind Greene and Martinez.

Abbott is also only 25 years old and has yet to enter arbitration. He does have three options remaining, but demoting him to Triple-A after two quietly productive seasons in the bigs sets the wrong tone for a player who will likely be a core member of the squad far into the future.

If Abbott has any reason to watch his back, though, it is that squad of the future. Lowder, of course, will be his biggest competition, but Chase Petty won’t be too far behind. The Reds also signed veteran lefty Wade Miley, who should return from injury in May, to a minor league deal.

For the past two years, Abbott has done everything expected of him in order to lock down a spot on the Opening Day roster. However, with the waves of starters on the way, it may not be enough.

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