Reds ignored the warning signs on Alexis Díaz and it just backfired

Former Cincinnati Reds closer Alexis Díaz was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a return package that amounted to little more than a player to be named later. Díaz's performance this season — both in the major and minor leagues — was so bad that a former 13th-round draft pick was all Cincinnati was able to receive in return.

Though many Reds fans are bemoaning the light return Cincinnati received in exchange for the former All-Star, the truth is they were fortunate to even get that. Díaz hasn't been the same player since the Midsummer Classic in 2023, but the Reds ignored the warning signs and now they're left with Mike Villani.

Díaz came out of nowhere in 2022. He, along with former Reds reliever Daniel Duarte were two surprise inclusions on the Opening Day roster. Duarte experienced an injury-plagued rookie season in 2022, but Díaz thrived and eventually took over the closer's role from Hunter Strickland.

The Reds sold low on Alexis Díaz and paid a steep price

From Díaz's MLB debut on April 8, 2022 through the All-Star break in 2023, he logged 103 ⅔ innings, struck out 144 batters, and walked just 52. His 1.91 ERA was spectacular. While the 12.4% walk rate was less than desirable, Díaz offset that with a 34.4% strikeout rate. His fastball consistently sat above 95 mph and he converted 87.8% (36-for-41) of his save opportunities.

But since that time, Díaz has been a shell of himself. The right-hander's ERA ballooned to 4.72 in the 96 games since the 2023 All-Star Game. His strikeout rate dipped to 20.9% while his walk rate climbed to 13.3%. Díaz was 39-for-45 in save chances (86.7%), but perhaps most disturbing was the drop in velocity. The reliever's fastball lost its zip, going from an average of 95.5 mph to 93.9 mph. Lack of command, control, and velocity all contributed to Díaz's sharp decline.

There were plenty of trade rumors surrounding Díaz back in 2022 and 2023. The New York Mets were frequently linked to Díaz, mainly because of the connection with his brother who was the team's closer. Looking back, it's quite possible that Cincinnati could've landed a quality bat like Brett Baty or Mark Vientos in exchange for Díaz.

But now the Reds are left with a lottery ticket in the form of Villani. On the plus side, Díaz himself was once a late-round draft pick. Perhaps the Reds' newest addition can find similar success as he moves up through the farm system. If not, however, Nick Krall and the Reds front office will be left to think about what could've been.

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