Reds’ homefield edge means nothing if they ignore their biggest need this offseason

As the Cincinnati Reds stare at the mounting distance above them in the standings, they may not be able to help but notice a troubling trend. Each team currently in playoff position has a winning percentage near .600 at home. The Reds are lagging behind their competitors. No matter how this season ends, Cincinnati needs to turn Great American Ball Park into a fortress by acquiring a power bat.

The Reds’ home stadium has long been one of the friendliest hitters’ parks in the majors, particularly for right-handed batters. Statcast’s Park Factors puts GABP just behind Dodger Stadium and Yankee Stadium and notes that righties in Cincy are 18% more likely to produce a home run.

From the left side, GABP is even friendlier (27% more likely to produce a homer), trailing only Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Reds have an opportunity, like the powerhouse Dodgers and Phillies, to construct a lineup that benefits their natural homefield advantage.

The Reds need to play into the strengths of Great American Ball Park

Kiké Hernández has a swing that is tailored to Chavez Ravine. He tends to pull the ball in the air more than the average big leaguer. The resulting big flies sail deep into the California night. His two years in Boston under the shadow of the Green Monster were among his worst years from a slugging percentage perspective (although he banged out a career-high 35 doubles and 127 hits in 2021).

In a sense, Dodger Stadium helped turn Hernández, who could have been just another light-hitting utility whiz, into a more potent offensive threat. He’s not a slugger — the Dodgers have plenty of those — but he swings well enough to earn a spot somewhere on the field nightly.

A prime example in Philly is Kyle Schwarber, whose extreme pull (54.3%) from the left-handed box has produced 180 homers in the past four seasons. At Wrigley Field, which is one of the colder ballparks for lefties, Schwarber maxed out at 38 homers. He’s staring down 50 this year in Philadelphia. (As a side note, if the Cincinnati native had played all his games at Great American, he would have 371 career homers instead of his actual number, 333.)

The recipe seems to be pulling the ball more than 40% of the time and hitting a fly ball more than 30%. Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand are the only Reds regulars that fit that mold, and their swings have more holes than Swiss cheese. It’s time for Cincinnati to play to its strengths and ink a player who can get around on the ball and pull it deep into the seats. Maybe even a hometown kid, like Schwarber?

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