Reds playoff math is uglier than anyone expected with season-defining homestand ahead

It's not hyperbole to suggest that the Cincinnati Reds are facing a do-or-die homestand over the next 10 days. Heading into play on Friday, the Reds trail the New York Mets by four games in the chase for the final spot in the NL Wild Card.

Cincinnati opens with a three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Reds will then welcome the Toronto Blue Jays to town for three more games, before ending the homestand with a crucial series against the very team they're chasing, the Mets.

The Reds must win seven of their next nine games to even give themselves a shot at the MLB Postseason. Moreover, three of those seven wins need to come against the Mets. That's right, unless Cincinnati goes 7-2 during the upcoming homestand, including a three-game sweep of the Mets, their playoff hopes will be all but dashed.

Reds playoff math is uglier than anyone expected with Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Mets coming to town

The Mets suffered a loss to the Miami Marlins on Thursday. Even though the Reds were off, Miami's victory over New York closed the Mets' lead in the NL Wild Card to just four games. The Mets have three more against the Fish before heading to the Motor City for a three-game clash with the AL's best, the Detroit Tigers.

The Mets could very easily go 3-3 or worse during that six-game stretch, which makes the Reds' next six games all the more important. At this stage of the season, the Reds can't afford to just win a series, they need a three-game sweep. Snagging three straight against the the Cardinals would be a good place to start. All three St. Louis starters in the upcoming series have an ERA north of 4.25. That should help Cincinnati's cause.

The Reds then have a tall task with the Blue Jays coming to town. Toronto has taken control of the AL East this season, and could pose a major hurdle for the Reds. But the Jays have a mere .500 record on the road this season, so there's hope that Cincinnati could upend their neighbors to the north with three games at Great American Ball Park next week.

Then comes the big test, right? If the Reds can indeed manage to have a winning record — 4-2 or better — after the first six games of this homestand, they'll enter next weekend's series against the Mets with their playoff hopes on the line. A sweep of New York would be terrific and set them up for the stretch run. A series win would be fine, but only allow Cincy to gain a game in the standings. A series loss, or sweep at the hands of the Mets would essentially be the end of the road for the Reds this season.

If the Reds post a winning record during the upcoming homestand — including a three-game sweep of the Mets — they'll be in great shape for the final three weeks of the season. If they don't, the attention of the fans and the front office will be fixed on the upcoming offseason.

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