Reds have an overlooked prospect who deserves Rule 5 protection over Cam Collier

While there's some uncertainty as to whether the Rule 5 Draft will occur this year with a potential lockout looming on December 1, the deadline to protect eligible prospects is on November 17; therefore, the Cincinnati Reds can take no chances.

The Reds currently have three open slots on their 40-man roster and a lengthy list of prospects eligible for the draft if unprotected. There will surely be some moving and shaking that goes on between now and then, as the team (hopefully) uses some of those spots for free-agent additions, while other spots will be opened up ahead of the non-tender deadline.

Not all prospects on the list need to be protected, of course. The Rule 5 Draft requires the team making the selection to carry the drafted player on their big league roster for the entirety of the season, or else they must offer them back. Therefore, players at the lower levels or who have no chance of being major league ready in 2027 are not at risk.

One player who could be a candidate to be added to the 40-man roster is Cincinnati's No. 17 overall prospect, Cam Collier. He turns 22 on November 20, and in a perfect world, the young slugger would be in line for a 2027 call-up.

However, if push comes to shove, there's another under-the-radar corner infield prospect who should get the spot over Collier. That would be 27-year-old Ruben Ibarra.

Ruben Ibarra has a better shot at contributing to the 2027 Reds than Cam Collier

Ibarra is barely a prospect, given his advanced age and his absence from the top prospect rankings from all the top outlets. However, he put together a career-best power showing in 2026 at Chattanooga, blasting 25 homers while slashing .238/.337/.473. The contact is a bit of an issue, but with an above-average 11.3% walk rate to pair with that power, he's an intriguing player.

The intrigue with Ibarra has only grown during the offseason. The 2021 fourth-round pick is playing winter ball down in Mexico with the Naranjeros de Hermosillo, and has logged 17 contests so far with a sizzling .313/.405/.734 with a whopping eight dingers.

Now, the competition in the Mexican winter league isn't on par with winter ball in the Dominican Republic, which is the gold standard, or even the competition in Venezuela. Still, the outburst is something that will make folks take note.

However, this is more about Collier than it is about Ibarra. The 2022 first-round pick entered 2025 as the Reds' No. 4 overall prospect, behind only Chase Burns, Rhett Lowder, and Sal Stewart, and just ahead of Edwin Arroyo.

Collier's 2025 marked his ascension to Double-A, but a hand injury sapped his power at Chattanooga. Overall, between a brief start in Dayton and 74 games in Chattanooga, Collier hit a combined .279/.391/.384 with just four home runs. Still, the contact and on-base skills were encouraging, and with health, there was hope that his power would return.

Instead, Collier fell flat on his face in 2026. In a second Double-A tour of duty, his power returned with 18 homers, but he hit just .209/.286/.368. The much-anticipated promotion to Louisville never occurred.

Collier could still bounce back in 2027, but it's hard to see any team believing he'd be worthy of a big league roster spot next season. On the other hand, someone could take a flier on Ibarra, especially as he continues to turn heads in Mexico. Therefore, by protecting Ibarra over Collier, the Reds pretty much ensure that they keep both, while giving preference to a player who is further along and could potentially help them at some point next year.

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