Reds have a growing problem and Chris Paddack explained exactly what it is

After an 8-1 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday, Chris Paddack bemoaned the three walks he issued. Two of the three players that worked free passes from the Cincinnati Reds starter came around to score, enabling St. Louis to take a lead it would not relinquish. Paddack’s frustration with his lack of command speaks to a greater issue for Cincinnati’s pitching staff, which leads the NL in walks this season.

"I thought we filled up the zone early," Paddack said after the game. "I was 9-for-9 on first pitch strikes to start the game, the first time through the lineup. And then you start seeing me fall behind in counts. I can live with the singles, I can't live with the three walks."

The Reds punched their ticket to the postseason in 2025 largely on the merits of their pitching, but this season has been a different story. With the exception of the transcendent Chase Burns, Cincinnati pitchers have underperformed this year, and it’s easy to point to the staff’s inability to attack the zone as a major reason for the woes.

Chris Paddack acknowledged a larger issue among Reds pitchers

Reds pitchers are tied with the Los Angeles Angels for dead last in the majors in first-pitch strike rate. The group went after hitters to the tune of 62.3% of first pitches being strikes last season. Now, the rate has plummeted to 56.5%. This approach allows opponents to get into hitters’ counts.

In such situations, Reds opponents have an on-base percentage of .521. In other words, when Cincinnati pitchers fall behind, they allow opposing batters to reach base more than 50% of the time. That's not a recipe for success.

Perhaps this change in approach can be attributed to the Reds rotation’s makeup. Aside from Burns, none of the starters could be considered power pitchers. In fact, the other four all produce roughly the same whiff rate (approximately 21.5%) and use a low-to-mid 90s fastball. These are the types of pitchers that need to nibble at the edges and use their craft.

The ABS system may have some part to play in this as well. The strike zone is shrinking, forcing pitchers like Paddack and Andrew Abbott to venture over the plate or risk letting batters get ahead in the count.

Paddack, Abbott, Brady Singer, and Nick Lodolo are all putting up career-worst numbers in zone rate. They simply aren’t throwing strikes. For the Reds to stay afloat in a competitive NL Central, this trend cannot continue.

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