Chase Burns' breakout could change Reds' pecking order faster than expected

Cincinnati Reds flamethrower Chase Burns was outstanding during his most recent start. The right-hander went seven-plus innings, struck out seven, and allowed just three hits. Not a single runner dented the plate, but Burns left with a no-decision and the Reds lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday by a final score of 1-0.

The loss itself stings, but it doesn't take away from the brilliant start to the season that Burns has enjoyed. He's 3-1 on the year with a 2.20 ERA through seven starts. Across 41 innings pitched, he has recorded 46 punch outs, and his slider has been nearly un-hittable.

With both Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo on the injured list — though Lodolo is expected to return this week — the Reds have had to lean heavily on Burns to begin the season. Andrew Abbott's early-season struggles have put even more pressure on his shoulders, but he's been able to meet the moment head on. Is Burns actually the Reds' ace?

Has Chase Burns replaced Hunter Greene as the Reds' ace?

The term ace is tossed about rather frivolously by baseball fans nowadays, but when speaking about the Reds, Greene's name is usually linked to that title. Some fans feel as if that role doesn't apply to Greene, as evidenced by his consistent inability to stay off the IL. Even now, he's currently sidelined after undergoing elbow surgery earlier this spring and isn't expected to return until July.

Though there's definitely some truth to that line of reasoning, most fans would agree that (when healthy) Greene has the best pure stuff on the team. Last season, the fireballer was among the very best in all of MLB in pitching run value (20).

Greene spent more than two months on the IL, but still managed to post a 2.76 ERA and 0.94 WHIP over 19 starts. He did a tremendous job of limiting walks last season (6.2% BB rate) and was still among the 89th percentile or better in strikeout rate, chase rate, and whiff rate.

But Burns is quickly approaching those numbers this season. His breaking ball has been his bread and butter in 2026, and it's helped him strike out nearly 30% of the batters he's faced. His 34.8% whiff rate is among the tops in baseball, and even lowered his walk rate from last season.

The one thing both Burns and Greene have struggled with is developing a third offering. Burns has been mixing in a changeup this season, while Greene has tinkered with a splitter, changeup, and curve ball in the past. Whichever of these two finally masters that third pitch will likely become the ace of the staff.

Until Greene returns, and unless Abbott finds his form, Burns is the top dog in the Reds rotation. It's a bit premature to call Burns an ace — he has just 15 career starts — but he's certainly tracking that direction.

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