Reds may have found another gem if Rhett Lowder continues this trend

The Cincinnati Reds' starting rotation is a real mind-trip right now. The veteran stalwarts that you'd expect to be the pillars holding the unit up have mostly fallen flat. Andrew Abbott was ranked as one of the top-50 starters in the game heading into 2026, yet he's posted a 6.59 ERA through six starts. Brady Singer, always thought to be a picture of stability, has come in at a 4.97 clip.

On the flip side, it's been the unknowns who are holding up the rotation. Chase Burns has been stellar with a 2.65 ERA and impressed greatly after jumping from High-A Dayton all the way to the majors in his first professional season last year. Perhaps even more stunning has been Rhett Lowder's performance.

The 24-year-old had nearly his entire 2025 campaign washed out by a litany of injuries and setbacks. It would have been understandable if he needed time to ramp up in 2026 after missing so much action, but he's hit the ground running with a 3.18 ERA through six starts.

The two youngsters have become each other's foil, with veteran catcher Jose Trevino noting, "They compete against each other in everything. They are two very, very competitive individuals. As much as they want to do better than the other, they’re each other’s biggest fans.”

For Lowder, as good as he's been, there's one more thing that he needs to clean up. The fact that he's survived it thus far speaks to his competitive nature, but if and when he conquers this flaw, the league will truly be put on notice.

Reds pitcher Rhett Lowder will be even better if he can conquer one issue

Conventional wisdom is that starters typically become less effective each time through the order. The logic is simple. Each trip around, a starter usually gets less effective as he digs deeper into his repertoire and loses the element of surprise. Fatigue, too, is an obvious factor.

However, for Lowder, things have been anything but conventional. He has a 3.86 ERA the first time he goes through an opposing lineup, which then drops to 3.29 the second time around, and 2.08 the third time through.

That's not a fluke either. Opposing batters own a .310 wOBA when they see him the first time in a game, a .275 wOBA the second, and a .209 wOBA the third. Lowder, to his credit, has more or less avoided major first-inning meltdowns that put the Reds in a bad position.

Take his April 20 start against the Tampa Bay Rays as a perfect example. Lowder was staked to a 2-0 lead, but Rays speedster Chandler Simpson led off the bottom of the first with an infield single. Another single and a walk would follow to load the bases before Lowder issued his second walk of the frame to force in a run.

Sitting in a 2-1 game and a bases-loaded, no-out jam, it would be easy for most inexperienced starters to unravel. Lowder did the opposite. He struck out the next two batters before inducing a groundout to end the inning without further damage. At the end of the day, he'd go six strong, allowing just three more hits throughout and no more runs, securing a 6-1 victory for Cincinnati.

That brings about the interesting juxtaposition. In a way, Lowder's ability to overcome early adversity and stay in games is a great development. However, in other instances, it prevents him from going deep into games, which can cause trouble.

Knowing he has that sort of ice water in his veins is good, but if he can firm up those slow starts to games, it will vault him to the next level. At that point, we will see him moving closer to ace territory, logging more innings, and saving the bullpen. It remains to be seen if he can do it, but it will be a key storyline to watch as the season unfolds.

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