Reds fans will love Terry Francona's forecast for Elly De La Cruz's stolen base total

Cincinnati Reds manager Terry Francona is not afraid to send runners. Whether a stolen base turns the tide of a pivotal game or simply wins America free tacos, the skipper has been associated with moments of baserunning magic. With speed like Elly De La Cruz’s, Francona will likely be involved in even more. Many, many more.

In an interview with MLB Network, Francona indicated that he’s focusing more on De La Cruz’s decision-making than on limiting his opportunities to steal in 2025. The emphasis on success rate is key for the young speedster who led the majors in stolen bases, caught stealing, and strikeouts last season. A year in which De La Cruz brings down his Ks, thus getting on base more, and improves his rate on steal attempts could yield unprecedented success.

Terry Francona’s emphasis on base-stealing success could put Reds' superstar Elly De La Cruz on a whole new level

In his 83 steal attempts last year, De La Cruz was caught on 16, an 80.7% rate of success. Elite baserunners, such as Trea Turner or Hall of Famer Tim Raines, have a success rate closer to 85%. What would that do for De La Cruz’s numbers? Well, he would have an easy shot at 70 steals, a feat achieved by just four other players in this century.

If De La Cruz reduces his strikeouts/increases his on-base percentage as well? Let’s say that instead of striking out in 31% of his at-bats, he cuts that figure to 29%. Not a drastic change, but enough to make a difference, and incidentally, that’s where many of the projections place him. In a season of about 650-700 plate appearances, that becomes about 20 more balls in play (unless he walks instead), and if a third of those land safely (as his past BABIP indicates), that’s seven more hits.

Does seven hits really matter? For most batters, no. For a player with the power of De La Cruz? Maybe. Maybe a couple of those leave the ballpark, and now we’re looking at a possible 30-homer year. Maybe a couple drop for singles or doubles and he can use his speed to disrupt the game. Maybe both.

The point is, a few small improvements can add up over a 162-game season. Francona is a master of doing the little things to contribute to a big change. If the Reds expect to compete this season, which Francona hopes, it all starts with Elly. And under Francona’s tutelage, he – and the Reds – have a chance to be great.

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