Reds facing troubling Andrew Abbott reality (even with one relief)

For better or worse, the Cincinnati Reds know a thing or two about pitching injuries. Only one member of the Reds’ rotation in 2025 started at least 30 games. So a key pitcher being healthy and capable of starting every five days should be a relief… right? While Andrew Abbott has shaken off the maladies that have sidelined him in previous seasons, he’s in the worst slump of his career. What gives?

It’s quite possible that this is simply Abbott regressing to the mean. Yes, the first six starts have been disastrous for the lefty, but some of his numbers bear a passing resemblance to the marks from his first two seasons (4.67 FIP in 2023-2024 vs. 4.98 FIP currently and 3.5 BB/9 vs. 4.1 BB/9 currently). He’s basically doing what Steamer projected he would do, as frustrating as that is for Reds fans.

Reds fans are right to be concerned about Andrew Abbott's struggles

Of more concern than Abbott’s health (which is holding steady) and his command (which is on par with previous seasons) are opposing batters’ results. His whiff rate on his four-seam fastball has dropped from 19.9% in 2025, which was in line with his other seasons, to 8.2% in 2026. He’s lost more than two inches of horizontal movement on the pitch, and opposing hitters are teeing off, averaging .308 and slugging .431 against Abbott’s fastball.

Abbott himself has admitted that he doesn’t know what the issue is, while manager Terry Francona and pitching coach Derek Johnson are focused on mechanics. (There could be something to that theory; Abbott’s arm angle is five degrees higher than last year, and several of his pitches have lost their horizontal zip.)

Another theory could be the implementation of the ABS system. Abbott had considerable success getting players to chase or by working the shadow of the plate, and possibly he could be being squeezed back into the heart of the zone by the new system.

The silver lining here, of course, is that as long as Abbott stays healthy, he can work his way through these issues. Each time he steps onto the mound (and on the training days in-between outings), he will be working his way toward answers and adjustments. That — along with pitchers who can consistently take the mound every five days – is all the Reds need at the moment.

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