Andrew Abbott's ludicrous Steamer projection looks ugly but Reds fans shouldn’t panic

One of the factors that has cushioned the blow of Hunter Greene's elbow surgery is the presence of Andrew Abbott in the rotation. The 26-year-old southpaw is coming off a breakout 2025 season and is a worthy choice to be the Cincinnati Reds' Opening Day starter.

Regardless of Greene's injury, big things are expected out of Abbott in 2026. His 2.87 ERA last year transformed him from an up-and-coming youngster to a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm, and is one of the primary reasons that the Reds' rotation has been regarded as one of the best in the league.

At least, that's what Reds fans think. But not everyone shares that level optimism. The popular projection system, Steamer, doesn't see the lefty in a favorable light. Its algorithm has spit out a nightmare scenario for Cincinnati, pegging Abbott with a 4.53 ERA over 170 innings pitched.

Steamer uses past performance, underlying batted ball data, injury history, and aging curves to predict how a player might perform. It's not a guarantee, but typically, it provides a solid estimation of what fans can expect. However, in Abbott's case, it feels way off base, and there are several reasons why.

Andrew Abbott's nightmare Steamer projection shouldn't worry Reds fans

Let's start with the bottom-line stats. Abbott has never finished with an ERA worse than 3.87. Even if you go based on expected ERA, a stat that takes quality and type of contact into account to project how a pitcher's ERA should look, he's coming off a 3.55 xERA performance and has never posted one above 3.97. Therefore, a 4.53 mark seems way out of whack.

Also consider this, projection systems like strikeouts. There's no better way for a pitcher to take control of an outcome than via the K. With that said, strikeouts aren't the only determining factor when it comes to deciding who is a good pitcher and who is not.

Abbott isn't inept when it comes to generating strikeouts, but he's slightly below average. His 21.8% strikeout rate in 2025 was a 44th percentile number. That's absolutely acceptable, especially when you only walk batters at a 6.3% clip as Abbott did, and was significantly above average at, coming in the 79th percentile.

The young Reds lefty primarily gets outs because he consistently generates weak contact. A big reason for that is his stellar stuff. While he doesn't wow you with velocity, he locates well and has a lot of movement on his pitches. That leads to hitters chasing, which occurred at a 30.2% rate last season (74th percentile). Because hitters are chasing and making contact with pitches out of the zone, he was able to generate an 87.8 miles per hour exit velocity (84th percentile) and a 33.7% hard-hit rate (93rd percentile) in 2026.

These factors are major reasons why the Reds would be wise to extend Abbott sooner rather than later. Abbott's abilities are a major reason why many thought a team with eyes on contending would consider trading Greene over the offseason.

Steamer doesn't take much of this into account. Instead, it looks at a pitcher with a mediocre strikeout rate who gives up a lot of fly balls in an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark. And while fly balls in Great American Ball Park typically equal bad news, they still need to be relatively well struck to do damage. Abbott limits that very well; therefore, the prediction feels very much off base.

So don't panic. Abbott isn't magically going to regress. He's a quality front-end starter with room to grow. He just isn't flashy, and that's what the projection systems reward.