Reds face harsh reality with Hunter Greene trade that no one wants to talk about

After making the postseason for the first time since 2020, about the last thing Cincinnati Reds fans want is to see the team do anything to damage the core of the team. Endless trade rumors surrounding Hunter Greene are sure to displease those fans, though lest anyone fear a reprisal of the infamous Frank Robinson trade taking place, there's good news to share.

Greene is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's also just 26 years old, has a fastball that routinely reaches triple digits, and has four years of eminently affordable team control remaining on his contract (including his club option in 2029).

Do you know what that means? He's going to be expensive to acquire -- perhaps prohibitively so.

Hunter Green's trade cost will be so high that the Reds will likely hold onto him

The folks around here hardly need a reminder of how good Greene has become, but let's go through the brief rundown. Since the start of 2024, the 26-year-old has been worth 6.6 FWAR while firing off a 2.76 ERA, 3.39 FIP, and 0.98 WHIP. He's struck out 29.2% of hitters in that span, and opposing batters are hitting just .186 off of him while whiffing (31.4%) and chasing (32.4%) and laughable rates.

That alone makes Greene an attractive trade chip, and his contract only increases his appeal. Considering how close the Reds are to serious playoff contention, though, they'd have to demand MLB-ready pieces in return. Would any team be willing to part with multiple top prospects and young MLB contributors in exchange for one player?

Well, maybe. If we're being honest, among the many available starting pitching options on the trade market, who is actually better than Greene?

Mitch Keller certainly isn't, and the Pittsburgh Pirates are probably going to biff his trade anyway given their track record. Freddy Peralta is probably close, but he's a rental in need of a shiny new contract extension that the Milwaukee Brewers won't be handing out anytime soon.

Tarik Skubal is the only available pitcher who is inarguably better than Greene, but he, like Peralta, is heading into his final year of team control. He'll command a pretty penny in a trade, to be sure, but an expensive year of arbitration while demanding a record-breaking contract is going to significantly damage the quality of the return the Detroit Tigers receive.

Meanwhile, Greene won't cost his acquiring team more than $40 million over the next three seasons ($61 million over four if his club option is exercised). That his AAV is so low ($8.83 million) will only make him more attractive to the biggest market teams that have to carefully watch out for the Competitive Balance Tax, meaning the Reds could hold a bidding war between the biggest franchises in baseball for their star pitcher's services.

So, yes, there is a world where trading Greene gets the Reds the resources they need to extend their competitive window further, beyond the end of the decade. Still, it's rarely (if ever) been advisable for a team on the rise to willingly part with one of its best players. The Reds would be wise to set their asking price for their ace astronomically high; they just need to set the expectation that no one is going to meet it.