Reds could regret waiting too long to make JJ Bleday a priority

JJ Bleday became just the eighth player in Cincinnati Reds history to hit for the cycle on Saturday night in Phoenix. The Reds' slugger went 4-for-6 and his solo home run in the sixth inning to complete the cycle also set a new career-high with 21 round-trippers on the year.

After being designated for assignment by the Athletics last November, Bleday signed a one-year 'prove-it' deal with the Reds. The 28-year-old began his season at Triple-A Louisville, but after a scorching-hot start in the minor leagues, he was promoted to the big-league roster in late April.

Bleday's name came up early and often ahead of the August 3 trade deadline, but the Reds maintained a high price tag, and decided to hold onto their breakout slugger. This would seem to indicate that Cincinnati sees Bleday as a potential building block for the future.

Given the current state of the Reds' outfield, one has to wonder whether or not Bleday's 2026 performance necessitates a long-term commitment from the Reds. He's under team control through 2028, but Cincinnati's poor track record of developing outfielders should have them looking beyond his arbitration window.

Reds might regret letting JJ Bleday get too close to free agency

The Reds do not have many long-term commitments. Hunter Greene is signed through 2028 with a club-option for 2029. Jose Trevino is under contract through next season. Ke'Bryan Hayes' contract runs through 2029 — though many fans don't anticipate seeing him in a Reds' uniform beyond this season. Most recently, Cincinnati inked Chase Burns to a seven-year extension that'll keep him in the Queen City through the 2033 season.

But the Reds don't have any of their impact bats locked up beyond their arbitration years. It's almost a given that shortstop Elly De La Cruz will be gone once he becomes a free agent (if not before). Tyler Stephenson will hit the free agent market this coming offseason, and unless Cincinnati works out an extension between now and the end of the season, he's as good as gone. Sal Stewart seems like the perfect contract extension candidate, but to date, the Reds have resisted the urge to lock up their rookie slugger.

There's no real reason for the Reds to rush into a Bleday extension. Even with his breakout campaign in 2026, it's difficult to see him taking home more than $5 million through arbitration next season. The Reds could go through the process, see if his 2026 performance was real or an outlier, and then discuss the potential for a long-term deal before the start of 2028.

But there's tremendous risk that comes with waiting. If Bleday is able to duplicate his 2026 performance next season, one of two things will happen. The price tag for an extension will go up dramatically, or he'll forgo any talk of a new contract, and head into free agency after 2028. If Cincinnati believes what they're seeing is the true version of Bleday, they shouldn't let him enter 2027 without an extension.

If you're curious what a Bleday contract extension might look like, there's not necessarily a great comp that exists. Vinnie Pasquantino's two-year, $11.1 million deal with the Kansas City Royals might be close, and if the Reds wanted to add another year, maybe a three-year, $17 million deal would suffice.

Héctor Rodríguez put forth a tremendous performance at Triple-A this season and has shown flashes since making his big league debut earlier this month, but the Reds' crop of outfield talent in the minor leagues is mostly barren at the moment.

Noelvi Marte's move to right field looks like a bust, TJ Friedl is likely to be non-tendered this coming winter, and Blake Dunn is going to miss most of next season while recovering from elbow surgery.

Making Bleday is a priority should be a priority for the Reds this coming offseason.

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