Reds could get Jarren Duran without making a costly mistake the Red Sox are banking on

A couple of years ago, Jarren Duran was the type of player the Cincinnati Reds would dream about but could never actually afford to trade for. In 2024, he hit 21 homers, stole 34 bases, smacked 48 doubles, and slashed .285/.342/.492, while playing stellar defense in both left field and center field. Now, he's one of the most underwater assets in baseball.

The 30-year-old took a step back in 2025, but still put together a mostly solid performance. However, in 2026, he cratered, hitting .207/.266/.361. Duran still has two years of team control left, but his projected $11 million arbitration number makes him an expensive proposition, especially if he doesn't bounce back.

The Boston Red Sox are desperate to trade him. They also have Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, and Roman Anthony in the outfield. They have Masataka Yoshida, who is nominally an outfielder but really is a DH-only player. They also have a brewing logjam in the infield with Trevor Story and Curtis Mead up the middle and top prospect Franklin Arias knocking on the door. They need to clear out space, not only to alleviate the outfield logjam, but also to utilize the DH position to move someone to in order to facilitate Arias' arrival.

At the same time, the Red Sox don't want to just give away Duran for a bag of balls. He's been the subject of many rumors and even greater interest on the trade market, so trading him in a deal that is solely a salary dump would mean they're admitting defeat.

The Reds need help wherever they can get it. Position is almost irrelevant. Betting on Duran to bounce back could be a worthwhile gamble. The problem comes in when one considers that Cincinnati would have to give up an asset to then take on his salary, which in this case is significant.

The Reds should engage the Red Sox in a staring contest, but even then, they might not get Jarren Duran

Ultimately, the roster spot means more to Boston than the value they can extract in a trade, so they could non-tender him by the November 20 deadline if they can't find a match. Even then, though, the Reds might not land the 2024 All-Star Game MVP.

The San Diego Padres have loved Duran for some time. They could trade for him outright or pursue him in free agency. In addition to the Padres, the Chicago Cubs, Seattle Mariners, and Arizona Diamondbacks are all teams that are thought to be candidates to land Duran should he hit free agency.

The Cubs and Mariners both have multiple outfield vacancies, while the Diamondbacks got woefully poor performance from their left-handed hitters in 2026. These clubs might not be willing to actually trade for him, but if he gets non-tendered, there could be a mini bidding war for the reclamation project.

There's no guarantee that Duran not only stops the slide but returns to form moving forward, so past a certain point the cost isn't worth the risk for the Reds. Still, taking their chances on the open market is a better path forward than paying him eight figures and trading away what could be a piece with some value. The Reds need to stare down the Red Sox, and then let the chips fall where they may.

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