Reds' coaching hire brings Ian Happ connection, but there's one problem

Connecting the Cincinnati Reds to free agent slugger Ian Happ was easy before Anthony Iapoce was hired as the team's new assistant hitting coach. Now, the link is even easier since Iapoce was a member of the Chicago Cubs coaching staff during Happ's early years on the North Side.

Iapoce was hired to be the Cubs' hitting coach heading after the 2018 season — two years after Happ's MLB debut. Iapoce was at the helm from 2019-2021. During that time, Happ became a regular in the Cubs' lineup and posted a collective .809 OPS with 48 home runs. The two are known to have a mutual respect for one another, which is why so many fans are pundits are making the connection.

But a few things are working against a Happ-Iapoce reunion in Cincinnati, not the least of which is the contract it'll take in order for the slugger to sign with the Reds. Many outlets predict Happ will land at least a two-year contract, while MLB Trade Rumors projects he'll be able to secure a three-year, $45 million deal.

The Reds have a fair amount of money coming off the books in 2027, and Emilio Pagán's decision to forgo his final season in Cincinnati freed up another $10 million. According to FanGraphs, the Reds' 2027 estimated payroll is about $37 million less than what they paid out in 2026. Assuming MLBTR's $15 million AAV is correct, the Reds would still have $22 million left to spend if they signed Happ. So what's the problem?

The Reds have too many holes and not enough money to sign Ian Happ

Among the many problems is Hunter Greene's $15.3 million salary that will account for 0% of the Reds' rotation next season. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery for the second time this past summer and is expected to miss all of the 2027 season. But Greene will still take home a full paycheck and Cincinnati will need to replace Greene's production. Any meaningful middle-of-the-rotation starter will cost the Reds at least $12-$15 million.

Brady Singer's spot in the rotation is also up for grabs, and Cincinnati needs to replace Tyler Stephenson behind the plate plus add several relievers to the bullpen. With so many holes on the Reds' roster, it would be unwise to put all their eggs in one basket.

The Reds went down this road last year with Eugenio Suárez and it blew up in their face. Though Geno's second-half surge helped the Reds to save face, the $15 million they spent to acquire Suárez would've been better utilized to help fortify the bullpen or add another reliable starter to the rotation.

Cincinnati faces the same dilemma this offseason and can't afford to be suckered in by Happ's Cincinnati ties and a relationship with Iapoce. If the Reds were one big-bat away from contention, this is undoubtedly a move they should make. But Cincinnati has so many needs and only so much money to go around.

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