Reds bullpen helped bury them before becoming key to their second-half surge

The Cincinnati Reds are still hoping to make a postseason push with a little less than six weeks remaining in the 2026 season. According to FanGraphs, however, the team's playoff chances may be on life support. Cincinnati's postseason odds sit at an uninspiring 0.6%, and with a brutal stretch of games in September, a return to playing baseball in October feels like a long shot.

Given the high hopes for this year's team, Reds fans are left to wonder what could've been. They're also left asking a simple question: what the heck happened?

That's a loaded question to be sure, and injuries to players like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Elly De La Cruz certainly didn't help matters. But one factor stands out as the Achilles heel of this year's Reds team, and it's a familiar foible that seems to haunt them each and every season — the bullpen.

One look at where the Reds' relief corps ranks among the rest of Major League Baseball reveals a sad truth. Cincinnati's bullpen ranks 20th in K/9 (8.42), 24th in WHIP (1.42), 25th ERA (4.46), and dead last in BB/9 (4.86). Reds relievers have given up the third-most walks and surrendered seventh-most home runs this season.

But when you dig a little deeper, you can see the Reds' bullpen sandwiched two really good months (March/ April and July) around two outright deplorable ones (May and June). In other words, the success of this year's team has been tied to the success or failure of the bullpen.

The bullpen's performance in May and June doomed the Reds' playoff chances

From Opening Day through April 30, the Reds bullpen had the fifth-best ERA (3.44). Cincinnati was leading the NL Central division with a 20-11 record and seemed poised for a successful season. But once the calendar flipped to May, everything came crashing down.

From May 1 through June 30, Cincinnati's bullpen ERA rose to 5.72. Only the lowly Colorado Rockies were worse (6.20). The Reds' 5.66 FIP was ranked dead last and their 5.63 BB/9 was the worst in MLB. But once July 1 rolled around, the Reds' relievers seemed to flip a switch. Cincinnati is back among the top-10 in ERA (3.38) and FIP (3.88). The Reds bullpen also has their walks under control (2.94 BB/9).

When you combine the Reds record from March/ April and July/ August, they're an impressive 38-28. But those fateful months of May and June saw Cincinnati post a dreadful win-loss record of 19-34. While the lineup has struggled at times, and the rotation has been riddled by injuries, the lack of consistency from the Reds' bullpen might be their biggest undoing this season.

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