Reds' arbitration settlements raise concerns as payroll reaches its predicted limits

Now that the Cincinnati Reds have come to an agreement with their eight players potentially facing arbitration, the club’s financial outlook is much clearer. Based on president of baseball operations Nick Krall’s statements, there may not be much wiggle room left for Cincy to round out its roster as the season approaches.

While the exact figure hasn’t been pinned down, several sources estimate that the Reds’ payroll has now surpassed last season’s $100 million mark. Spotrac indicates a mere $300,000 growth while Cot’s Baseball Contracts places the overage closer to $5 million. Either way, the spending may very well be done.

The Reds seem to have surpassed last year’s payroll, which could limit further moves

Cincinnati’s projected payroll ranks 24th in the majors, but their window of penny pinching is closing quickly by virtue of the team’s young roster. The Reds haven’t made serious efforts to extend any of their pre-arbitration or early arbitration players other than Hunter Greene, so Graham Ashcraft, Matt McLain, TJ Friedl, and Spencer Steer could all be looking at pay bumps that drive the payroll even higher in 2026. Don’t even think about Elly De La Cruz’s settlement when that comes in 2027.

Just because the belt is tightening doesn’t mean the moves have to stop entirely. Part of the Gavin Lux trade involved a draft pick, which ultimately saved the Reds the nearly $3 million typically paid to the No. 37 pick. That kind of creativity helped Krall redirect funds into the payroll (even if he had to sacrifice the opportunity to grab a prospect).

A less creative approach that would be welcomed by fans would be offloading some of the bigger contracts on the roster, starting with Jeimer Candelario. The third baseman is projected to make $27 million over the next two years, and he certainly wasn’t worth such a large proportion of the payroll considering last season’s performance. The idea of another team willing to take on his contract seems unlikely, though.

The 2025 payroll is on track to be the club’s highest since 2022 when they were on the hook for payments to Shogo Akiyama, Luis Castillo, Tommy Pham, and other players who were no longer on the team. At least Reds fans can take comfort knowing the money spent this season is actually going toward the product on the field.

Reds' arbitration settlements raise concerns as payroll reaches its predicted limits

The Reds seem to have surpassed last year’s payroll, which could limit further moves

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