Reds might have an Emilio Pagán problem if he keeps pitching like this

Emilio Pagán was public enemy No. 1 throughout the city of Cincinnati earlier this season. Through his first 15 appearances of 2026, the Cincinnati Reds' closer owned an alarming 6.43 ERA, an untenable 5.80 FIP, a paltry 17.7% strikeout rate, and he blew three of his first nine save opportunities during the first two months of the season.

Then Pagán suffered an agonizing hamstring injury on May 5 that landed him on the IL. Pagán himself assumed his season was over, but after almost two months of rehab, the right-hander returned to the mound.

A number Reds fans, fearing the worst, weren't necessary excited to see Pagán back in his familiar role at the back of the bullpen after being activated from the IL in late-June. But since his return, the veteran has been one of the best relievers in baseball.

Since July 1, Pagán has made 13 relief appearances while recording eight saves over 12⅓ innings pitched. He's struck out 18 batters (37.5% K rate) and walked just two (4.2% BB rate) while sporting an outstanding 1.46 ERA and 2.19 FIP.

But there's just one problem — Pagán might be pitching his way right out of Cincinnati. After inking a one-year deal with a player-option for 2027 this past December, Pagán will have to decide if he'd like to return to the Reds next season or test the free agent market once again.

Reds closer Emilio Pagàn may be pricing himself out of Cincinnati

A good closer is hard to find, and Pagán has turned himself into a reliable weapon in the ninth inning. While he's not on Mason Miller's level, the Reds' righty has performed well over the past month, and if he finishes strong, Pagán could have some lucrative multi-year offers on the table during the offseason.

The upcoming Collective Bargaining negotiations are sure to muddy the waters, and the safest thing for Pagán to do would be to re-up with the Reds for 2027. That would add another $10 million into his bank account next year and allow him and his family to continue to call Cincinnati home — something he's spoken fondly of since their arrival in 2024.

But money talks — sometimes quite loudly — and Pagán may well face a difficult decision later this year. Once the World Series comes to a close, he'll have a very short window at the beginning of November to decide whether or not to pick up his player-option. His performance over the final few weeks of the season could make that decision very easy or much more difficult.

If Pagán comes back to down to Earth a bit and those numbers level out, a return to the Reds seems likely. But if he keeps pitching lights out, the 35-year-old might be selling himself short by agreeing to exercise his player-option. This will definitely be something to watch in the coming months.

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