Reds 2026 arbitration projections suddenly look manageable with one exit looming

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Cincinnati Reds are projected to hand out over $50 million to their 13 arbitration eligible players next season. While the likes of Brady Singer, Tyler Stephenson, and Gavin Lux are going through the process for the final time and are expected to take home some of the highest salaries, first timers like TJ Friedl and Spencer Steer are both projected to earn more than $4 million through arbitration in 2026.

This is quite the problem for a team whose budget is rather tight. Last season, Cincinnati's Opening Day payroll was a little less than $112 million — 23rd lowest in Major League Baseball — and the Reds aren't expected to see a giant increase in spending heading into 2026.

Thankfully, there's a solution. Nick Martinez — who agreed to a qualifying offer last offseason — is entering free agency this offseason. Though Cincinnati would love to have the right-hander back next season, he's likely to find a more lucrative deal elsewhere. The Reds can then reallocate that $21.05 million he made in 2025, which should just about cover the increased expense of the arbitration costs.

Reds 2026 arbitration projections suddenly look manageable as Nick Martinez enters free agency

According to MLB Trade Rumors, the Reds are expected to have 13 players up for arbitration this offseason. It's assumed that Matt McLain qualifies for for Super Two status, though that's unclear at the moment. But not all 13 players are likely to be tendered contracts for next season.

Realistically, players like Ian Gibaut, Santiago Espinal, and Sam Moll, are unlikely to return in 2026. The remaining 10 players are almost assuredly set to return in 2026, though there's sure be some discussion centered around Lux and Will Benson. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Lux can expect to make $5 million through arbitration next season, while Benson is assumed to sign for about $1.7 million.

If Lux and Benson are included, the remaining nine players — McLain, Stephenson, Singer, Steer, Friedl, Tony Santillan, Nick Lodolo, and Graham Ashcraft — are expected to take home $45.1 million. If you subtract the 2025 salaries of those who went through arbitration last offseason, the Reds are adding about $21.6 million to the books in 2026 — just $500,000 more than Martinez made last season.

When you throw in the fact that Jake Fraley ($3.1 million) and Alexis Diaz ($4.5 million) were let go this past season, you can see that Cincinnati should have no problem fitting the majority of arbitration eligible players into the budget for next season.

The Reds will certainly have some tough decisions to make, but Cincinnati can't cry poor this offseason. That won't work. Next season, however, might be a different story. Even though Jeimer Candelario's $16 million salary will be coming off the ledger, Elly De La Cruz and Andrew Abbott will be up for arbitration heading into the 2027 season.