Reds 2026 arbitration projections are light work compared to the mess ahead

For once, the winter math in Cincinnati doesn’t feel like a migraine. The Cincinnati Reds’ 2026 arbitration class is more of a tidy to-do list than existential budget crisis, the kind of docket a front office can work through with coffee and a whiteboard instead of antacids.

There’s one eight-figure decision at the top, a strong middle full of everyday value, and a long tail of inexpensive role players who’ve already proven they can help a contender. Add it up, and (according to MLB Trade Rumors) you’re looking at roughly $51.5 million in projected arb salaries — manageable outlay for a club that’s built an everyday core and can see the window in front of it.

That’s the play here: take advantage of the soft spot. Because the “mess ahead” isn’t this winter, it’s the one after it, when Elly De La Cruz and Andrew Abbott are scheduled to join the party. If 2026 is about tidying, 2027 is about bracing.

Reds 2026 arbitration projections set up a bigger test next year with Elly De La Cruz and Andrew Abbott on deck

De La Cruz’s counting stats and awards potential make him a headline first-year case all by himself, and Abbott’s innings plus run prevention profile won’t come cheap either. The smart move now is to clear the small fires, bank wins on cost certainty, and preserve flexibility before those two reshape the payroll curve.

At the top of the current slate sits Brady Singer (projected $11.9 million), the lone eight-figure call and a pretty clean one if you believe in what he stabilized for this rotation. You tender that, full stop — then at least ask the extension question to see if there’s a palatable two- or three-year compromise that flattens risk for both sides.

The middle tier is where the Reds can quietly win the winter: Tyler Stephenson ($6.4million), Gavin Lux ($5 million), TJ Friedl ($4.9 million), Spencer Steer ($4.5 million), and Nick Lodolo ($4.3 million) represent everyday plate appearances and rotation value at prices that won’t handcuff you. If you want to get proactive, multi-year buyouts for Lodolo or Steer make a ton of sense, small premiums now to avoid sticker shock later.

Depth keeps this list friendly. Santiago Espinal ($2.9 million) fits as a glove-first, contact-oriented infield buffer. Will Benson ($1.7 million) still brings a power/speed profile you bet on. Tony Santillan at $2.4 million brings a classic “role and health” debate, but it should be a yes. Graham Ashcraft ($1.4 million) offers durable innings with room for more.

There are judgment calls. Ian Gibaut ($1.5 million) and Sam Moll ($1.2 million) stabilize leverage pockets. Those numbers don't force a choice you’ll regret in July, but neither player is guaranteed a spot on the roster.

Matt McLain at $2.6 million is an easy yes — he’s foundational when healthy despite a down season. And quite frankly, he’s at a discount compared to what was offered in an extension. Lux’s $5 million price tag becomes a bargain if his bat finds the traction his underlying skill set promises in Great American Ball Park. None of that requires heroics; it just requires decisiveness.

And that’s the larger point: this is a year to be decisive, not dramatic. Knock out Singer, lock in the everyday group, keep the pitching depth intact, and listen on creative multi-years for the right guys. Then turn the page to the true inflection point: next winter, when De La Cruz and Abbott arrive at the arbitration table and the zeros multiply. If the Reds handle 2026 like “light work,” they’ll enter that storm with options instead of excuses.