Prospect prediction reveals why Reds should not prioritize another free agent pitcher

Pitchers flying through the minors and landing in the big leagues, at times less than a year after being drafted, has become far more common. Just look at the 2023 Draft class (including Cincinnati Reds phenom Rhett Lowder). That approach doesn’t always fit, though, and MLB insider Jonathan Mayo seems to think Cincy will take it slow with top prospect Chase Burns. Still, the Reds shouldn’t rush out to buy another pitcher in the meantime.

Regardless of whether Burns makes his Reds debut in late 2025 or even 2026, the rotation is full of young arms with several promising prospects a phone call away. The current slate would even knock Lowder out of the picture (barring any injuries). Quite simply, Cincinnati is loaded with starters who are under team control for the next several years.

Chase Burn’s projected slow path through the minors shouldn’t push the Reds into talks with free agent pitchers

Spending the Reds’ limited funds on a free agent pitcher, especially given this year’s inflated market, would be foolish. Ignore Nick Pivetta. Ignore all of them. The starting rotation will be fine until Burns arrives.

Instead, the Reds need to spend money to build an offense that can back up these exciting arms. The lineup as currently constructed has been described as “a giant bucket of ‘meh.’” “Meh” doesn’t keep the exciting players, such as Elly De La Cruz, around beyond their rookie contract, and it doesn’t give much hope to the up-and-coming stars like Burns.

Now is the time to make a move to combat the “meh.” Prop up the outfield for at least this year, but also try to build for the future. Bring in a third baseman and hope against hope that Jeimer Candelario can recoup at least some of his value with a bounce-back year.

Not only do the Reds know who they are in 2025; they know who they will be in 2026 when Burns likely arrives. They only have three players in their contract years: Nick Martinez, Jose Trevino, and Emilio Pagán. If the front office doesn’t make strides to bolster the offense now, Cincinnati will be facing the same “meh” fate when the top prospect arrives.

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