Problematic Reds' outfield projection should have Nick Krall pushing the panic button

The outfield market is open for business, and the sky-high price tags would handcuff a Cincinnati Reds front office that needs to lock up a growing list of promising young stars. A few trade candidates, including Luis Robert Jr., could be options, but the price there, which would likely involve a handful of top prospects, may be too rich as well. However, if Cincinnati fails to make a deal and heads into Spring Training without a new outfield bat, the 2025 season may well be doomed from the start.

FanGraphs projects the Reds' 2025 starting outfield of TJ Friedl, a platoon of Jake Fraley and Cooper Bowman, and a platoon of Will Benson and Stuart Fairchild (Spencer Steer was placed at first base). That depth chart alone should be enough to strike fear into any Reds fan’s heart.

Essentially, Cincinnati will be trotting out an outfielder who is good when healthy, a Rule 5 draft pick, a player whose OPS has only surpassed .725 twice in six years, and a duo who combined for 200-plus strikeouts. Things are looking bleak.

If the Reds don’t ante up for an outfielder, things could be dire in 2025

Friedl, of course, is a lock in center even if the Reds pony up for a new bat. He’s a great fit at leadoff now that Jonathan India has vacated that spot and has a great eye at the plate. In 2024 when Friedl was hampered by a hamstring injury and running at below-average speed, he contributed +2 baserunning runs. He’s a hard-nosed team leader.

However, Friedl is rarely on the field. Name a body part, and Friedl has injured it: shoulder, ankle, hamstring (twice), oblique, wrist, thumb. Of these, the hamstring is of most concern. If he bats leadoff, the Reds’ offense will run on his legs, and as the center fielder, he will need to make up for defensive weaknesses on either side. One burst of speed could blow that right hammy again.

Fraley, Benson, and Fairchild will do little to help in this regard. The trio is projected to contribute -13.5 defensive fWAR. Only Fairchild contributed positive outs above average last season, but he is also projected to be the biggest offensive liability of the three in 2025. Even worse, Fairchild is out of minor-league options.

Bowman is in the mix despite being somewhat of an unknown entity because of Fraley’s lack of production against lefties. Fraley has a .173/.266/.238 line against southpaws. Bowman, though, has yet to debut in the big leagues and only has 34 games as an outfielder under his belt.

All of this is to say that the Reds gambling and paying high for an outfielder could burn them, but their current outfield picture will likely be much, much worse. It's time to pay up.

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