Predictable NL Central reunion could spell trouble for Reds in 2025

Corbin Burnes may well be the most valuable pitching piece on the free agent market this offseason. The former Cy Young Award-winner is almost certain to land with a contender on a contract that could span the better part of a decade. If Burnes opts to reconnect with a friendly face, Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell, the Cincinnati Reds and the rest of the NL Central could be in big trouble.

Burnes and Counsell spent six years together in Milwaukee — a time in which Burnes gained acclaim as one of the game’s best and most dependable starters and Counsell earned five trips to the postseason. In fact, Burnes got the Brewers to within one game of the World Series during his rookie campaign, posting a 2.00 ERA in six postseason appearances in 2018. After a disappointing Wild Card loss with the Orioles, Burnes will be eager to return to postseason glory.

If Corbin Burnes reunites with former manager Craig Counsell in Chicago, the Reds will be in for a tough few years

Counsell’s Cubs limped to a second-place finish in 2024, and they will certainly be active in the pitching market, although it’s unclear whether team president Jed Hoyer will pay up for a premium starter like Burnes. The team certainly has the money to do so if they choose, as evidenced by the seven-year, $117 million Dansby Swanson deal.

A Burnes-Counsell reunion would be particularly bad for the Reds. Burnes has absolutely owned the NL Central and has been especially effective against Cincinnati. His 2.57 ERA against the Reds is the lowest among the division foes. Reds fans breathed a sigh of relief when Milwaukee traded him to Baltimore before the 2024 season, and the idea of regularly facing Burnes next season will cause no small amount of discomfort among both players and fans alike.

Just as the Reds are seeing an opening in the division with the Brewers toying with trading Devin Williams, the return of Burnes could slam the door shut again. The image of Burnes and Sonny Gray both being in the NL Central is almost unimaginable.

Hope still remains that Burnes will land far, far away from Chicago and the NL Central. For one thing, the Cubs have seemed more interested in mid-tier pitchers in recent years. The only time they’ve paid more than $100 million for a free-agent arm was signing Jon Lester in 2014. Reds fans will hope that that pattern holds and that the NL Central remains Burnes-free.

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