What a Reds-Rays trade for star outfielder Randy Arozarena might have looked like

The Tampa Bay Rays became sellers on Thursday night (or Friday morning) after parting ways with playoff hero Randy Arozarena. The former St. Louis Cardinals farmhand was dealt to the Seattle Mariners for two minor league prospects and a player to be named later.

The Cincinnati Reds were never really rumored to be in on Arozarena, but Nick Krall and Co. certainly could have used the outfielder's pop in the middle of their lineup. While some will bemoan Arozarena's down-year, the former AL Rookie of the Year caught fire of late and has been one of the hottest hitters in the game over the past two months.

Cincinnati's outfield, on the other hand, has been rather pedestrian. Jake Fraley and Will Benson have been underwhelming, TJ Friedl has been on the IL, and Spencer Steer (while one of the Reds' best players) is an infielder by trade. Arozarena should have been on the Reds' radar, but what would it have cost?

What a Reds-Rays trade for OF Randy Arozarena might have looked like

Comparing opposing farm systems is an inexact science. What one talent evaluator sees, another quickly dismisses. For example, Keith Law of The Athletic (subscription required) ranked Cam Collier as the 50th-best prospect coming into the season, but MLB Pipeline didn't have the former first-rounder among their top-100. So while it's difficult to get a true assessment of how scouts throughout the league feel about certain players, let's see what the Reds might have given up in order to land Arozarena.

In exchange for Arozarena, the Mariners surrendered outfielder Aidan Smith and pitcher Brody Hopkins. Neither player is a top-100 prospect, meaning players like Collier, Rhett Lowder, Edwin Arroyo, and Sal Stewart wouldn't have been part of the discussion if the Reds and Rays were engaged in trade talks.

Seeing both a position player and hitter, both of whom have yet to play above Low-A, would seem to suggest that the Rays were targeting young players they could plug into lower levels of their farm system. That could have taken the likes of Julian Aguiar, Rece Hinds, and Zach Maxwell out of the equation as well.

The Reds likely would have traded two top prospects in exchange for Randy Arozarena

With all that as a backdrop, the Reds would have needed to part with at least two top prospects in order to secure Arozarena from the Rays. Furthermore, as Reds saw with the acquisition of Connor Phillips in 2022, the player to be named later isn't always a "throw-in", so there's still more fallout from this trade that could play out over the next month or so.

Looking at the Reds farm system, position players like Hector Rodriguez and Jay Allen II may have been on Tampa Bay's shortlist. On the pitching side of things, Cole Schoenwetter, Adam Serwinowski, and Hunter Hollan may have been enough to pique the Rays' interest. All five players are 22 years old or younger.

If you were Krall, would you have given up a combination of Rodriguez and Serwinowski, plus a PTBNL for two-and-a-half more seasons of Arozarena? Again, every scouting department is different, and Tampa Bay may have no interest in any of these Reds prospects, but the asking price for Arozarena would likely have been somewhere in this ballpark.

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