Reds Playoff Odds: Cincy's postseason aspirations are hanging by a thread

The Cincinnati Reds' chances of making it to the postseason haven't expired just yet, but they're hanging by a thread. David Bell's ball club has been playing better baseball of late, but the Reds' early-season struggles in April, and more specifically May, torpedoed Cincinnati's chances of playing in October.

According to FanGraphs, the Reds playoff odds stand at 4.6% — the lowest among all NL Central contenders. Even the Chicago Cubs have a 6.5% chance of making the MLB Postseason. Worse than Cincinnati's chances of making the postseason altogether is their shot at winning the division, which currently sits at just 2%.

Reds Playoff Odds: Cincy's postseason aspirations are hanging by a thread

This is unsurprising for the number of Reds fans who've watched this team all season. The club's 9-20 record in one-run games has certainly factored into the equation. If Cincinnati had won just half of those 20 games they'd lost, the Reds would be sitting atop the NL Central right now. That's just another example of how small the margin for error really is.

The Reds don't have a juggernaut of a schedule through the remainder of the season. According to ESPN, Cincinnati's strength of schedule ranks 17th among all 30 major league teams. Working in the Reds' favor is the fact that the Cubs, San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves, San Francisco Giants, and New York Mets all have a more difficult stretch from now until the 2024 season ends.

The Reds have a ton of division games over the final few weeks of the season, and it all begins with a trip to Milwaukee later this week. Cincinnati then gets a visit from the Cardinals next week before going on the road to play the Pirates in Pittsburgh and welcoming the division-leading Brewers to Great American Ball Park at the end of August.

The Reds are certainly a long shot to make the MLB Postseason, but the team hasn't given up just yet. The Reds will need an MVP-type performance from Elly De La Cruz over the final month-plus and perhaps the return of some key players from the IL if Cincinnati hopes to make their playoff dreams come true.

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