Reds must capitalize on seller's market as contenders scramble for bullpen help

After a sweep at the hand of the Washington Nationals to open the second half, the Cincinnati Reds may consider selling as they slip further in the NL Wild Card race. With a young, controllable roster, Cincinnati won’t want to go too far to jeopardize their chances of contending next year and beyond, but the club’s veteran relievers — many of whom will enter free agency in the next two years — could bring returns in a bullpen-hungry market.

While Nick Martinez, who has a player option for 2025, has gotten the most buzz in the recent days, Lucas Sims, Buck Farmer, and Justin Wilson could be attractive rentals to a number of contending clubs. As The Athletic’s (subscription required) Ken Rosenthal explained after the Royals’ acquisition of Hunter Harvey, relievers with controllability will command a high price as the MLB trade deadline approaches. Still, impending free agency may not scare away serious suitors.

Can the Reds take advantage of the seller's market at the MLB trade deadline by dealing short-term rentals?

Wilson seems to be the least likely to command a decent return on the market. Although lefty relievers are frequently sought after at the deadline, the 36-year-old Wilson is in the waning years of his career and has struggled in high-leverage situations. Opposing batters have an .833 OPS in 48 plate appearances in situations that Baseball-Reference deems “late and close". It’s hard to see teams giving up much when lefties like Detroit’s Andrew Chafin, who has allowed a .663 OPS in such situations, may be on the market.

Sims and Farmer, though, may draw considerable interest, even as rentals. Farmer is in the midst of a career year and is on pace to surpass his career-high in innings pitched while posting his best ERA, FIP, and WHIP. Sims has more experience in high-leverage situations, which could draw the attention of teams on the bubble.

While the Reds aren’t quite ready to throw in the towel on 2024 yet, signs indicate that they may be retooling their bullpen, and they would benefit from exploring the market with these reliever rentals before free agency robs them of their value to the club.

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