How much would it cost for the Reds to sign Luis Castillo to a contract extension?

Okay, let's dig in. Luis Castillo had yet another terrific performance for the Cincinnati Reds last night against the Chicago Cubs. Also, kudos to David Bell for leaving La Piedra on the hill as long as he did.

The trade rumors are out there. The New York Mets, New York Yankees, Minnesota Twins, and San Diego Padres are all said to be looking to acquire Castillo. According to Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Castillo is not oblivious to the rumors.

"I see the rumors every day, the teams that are interested in me. I put that out of my mind... I have all of the confidence in God that he’s going to give me the opportunity to play wherever we need to be. If it’s here, it’s here."

- Luis Castilo, Reds pitcher

That's a fantastic attitude, and it makes the idea of losing Castillo even more difficult. When he's on his game, Castillo is a Top 20 pitcher in baseball. I would even go as far to say that he could crack the Top 10. So what would it cost to retain Castillo's services?

What would a contract extension for Reds starter Luis Castillo look like?

There's a contingent of Reds Country who would love to see Cincinnati sign Luis Castillo to a contract extension. And it's not a bad idea. I mean we're talking about one of the best pitchers in the game. But what would that contract extension actually look like?

As it stands right now, Castillo is 29 years old and under team control through the 2023 season. This year, the right-hander is slated to take home $7.35M. For his career, Castillo is 43-53 in 133 starts with a 3.69 ERA and 830 strikeouts. Castillo's current bWAR is 16.3.

In order to better understand what Castillo's value might be, let's look at some recent contract extensions. Jose Berrios recently signed a seven-year/$131M extension with the Toronto Blue Jays. Miami's Sandy Alcantara just inked a five-year/$56M extension before the 2022 season began.

Let's dive into Alcantara's contract first. When he signed that contract prior to this season, the Marlins still had three years of team control remaining. In essence, Miami bought out Alcantara's arbitration years and then added two more. While the average annual value (AAV) of Alcantara's contract is $11.2M, he'll receive a base salary of $17M in 2025 and 2026.

Berrios' AAV is just over $18M, but according to Spotrac, the Blue Jays will be paying the right-hander $18M in both 2025 and 2026. Berrios will then make $24M in each of the final two years of his contract. His contract will expire before his age 34 season.

Is there a comparable pitcher to Reds starter Luis Castillo?

Based on his age and the number of arbitration years remaining when he signed the extension, Jose Berrios is probably a better comp for Luis Castillo than Sandy Alcantara. While Berrios has been in the league longer than Castillo, the Blue Jays hurler about a year-and-a-half younger than the Reds ace.

But if you take all the numbers into account, Luis Castillo is a better pitcher than Jose Berrios. Castillo has a lower ERA, a higher bWAR, a lower WHIP, and a better strikeout per nine innings. If I were Castillo's representation, Berrios' deal is the absolute floor in terms of a contract extension.

The only thing the Cincinnati Reds have going in their favor when comparing the two pitchers is Castillo's advanced age. Perhaps the Reds front office could offer Castillo a five-year extension as opposed to a seven-year pact. However, that would make the AAV go up as well.

I would say that a five-year/$90M extension would be the absolute best deal the Cincinnati Reds could get, and that's probably a pipe dream. Realistically, I believe that Luis Castillo could net a five-year/$110M contract. Should Castillo hit the open market, there's a chance he could get even more.