Orioles' 2023 deadline addition outlines potential return if Frankie Montas is traded

Rumors surrounding the Baltimore Orioles’ interest in Frankie Montas, in addition to other Cincinnati Reds' arms, have been flying as the MLB trade deadline approaches. Baltimore’s need for starting pitching help as well as its rich farm system makes a deal appealing for both sides, and luckily, Cincinnati can get an idea for a return on Montas by flipping the calendar back a year.

At the 2023 deadline, the Orioles acquired Jack Flaherty from the St. Louis Cardinals in exchange for three prospects, including Nos. 16 and 18 in MLB.com’s rankings at the time. While Montas and Flaherty bear some significant differences, the O’s-Cards deal may be a solid baseline for the Reds.

If the Reds trade Frankie Montas to the Orioles, last season’s Jack Flaherty deal could lay the groundwork for a lucrative return

Flaherty’s looming free agency and history of injury kept his price relatively low. The Orioles chose to part with Cesar Prieto and Drew Rom, both of whom were blocked by the glut of young talent in Baltimore, and Zack Showalter, a young pitcher who has quickly established himself as a promising arm in the Cardinals’ system. The Reds, though, may have an opportunity for an even better haul.

Though Montas has a mutual option for 2025, it seems unlikely that the Orioles would exercise it given the return of a slew of injured pitchers next season. In this way, Montas’s situation is much like Flaherty’s. The major difference here is actually the Orioles’ farm system. Many of Baltimore’s immediate impact players have graduated to the Majors, so the Orioles may be willing to part with high-ceiling, high-risk players in the lower levels of the system.

The Reds’ farm system is loaded with right-handed pitchers and speedy infielders, but they could use some more lefties and prospects with pop. If the Orioles ignore deals on their top 15 prospects, Cincinnati could target left-hander Luis De Leon, but they could push for the O's No. 10 prospect Mac Horvath, although a prospect of that value seems a bit steep given Montas’ struggles this season.

If the Reds include Nick Martinez in the deal, the return could be even higher. Considering the Kansas City Royals traded their No. 2 prospect and a first-round pick for Hunter Harvey, who has one year of arbitration left before becoming a free agent, the Reds are in a position to make a lucrative deal with a team that has one of the most productive farm systems in recent years. It’s time to consider building toward 2025.

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