Julian Aguiar's emergence threatens this Reds pitcher heading into next season

On August 19, 2022, Julian Aguiar was just one arm in the Class-A Daytona rotation. He appeared on none of the major prospect rankings, and as a 12th-round pick few had lofty hopes for the young righty. Exactly two years later, he made his Major League debut and may be threatening a pitcher once considered a key piece of the franchise’s future.

Aguiar blazed through the minor leagues, thanks in part to his command and ability to limit the long ball. He was at least a year younger than the average player at each level yet ranked among the team leaders in WHIP among starters at each stop. Aguiar’s success earned him a call-up to the Majors where his efficiency has waned a bit. Still, the Reds have won each of his first four starts.

Julian Aguiar, once an unheralded prospect, may force Graham Ashcraft out of the rotation in 2025

Aguiar’s slider has been particularly effective, and he has used the pitch to limit hard contact. His sinker, however, has been up in the zone over his first four starts and has yielded four doubles and three home runs. He’ll need to learn to more effectively deploy that pitch, off which opponents hit .310 in Triple-A, in order to find consistent success in the Majors.

Even with his challenges, Aguiar seems poised to make a run at a rotation spot in 2025 and potentially displace Graham Ashcraft. Until his recent demotion and strained elbow, Ashcraft has been a feature of the Reds’ rotation and of their future plans. The appearance of Aguiar and top pitching prospect Rhett Lowder at the end of 2024 could threaten Ashcraft’s place among Cincinnati’s starters.

Ashcraft has had flashes of brilliance over his three-year Major League career, and he boasts a premium slider with a +5 run value, according to Statcast. His cutter and sinker, which rank well above average in terms of velocity, are his weak points. The two offerings, which make up more than 60% of his pitches this season, have resulted in a slugging percentage over .500 and a hard-hit rate more than 40%. Those are bad numbers.

In fact, Ashcraft ranks in the bottom 10 percentile in xERA, xBA, xOBP, exit velocity, and strikeout rate. In other words, he is among the worst at striking out batters, keeping them off the basepaths, and preventing loud contact.

The Reds may go the “devil you know” path and keep Ashcraft in the rotation when he returns from the injured list in 2025, but if Aguiar pushes the issue over the final month of the season, don’t be surprised if we see No. 51 jogging out of the bullpen when the new year begins.