Baffling statistic shows exactly why Reds fans want David Bell fired

The Cincinnati Reds lost a heartbreaker on Sunday afternoon. With closer Alexis Dìaz on the mound for the ninth inning with a one-run lead, the Reds closer gave up a walk-off two-run homer to former Cincinnati farmhand Yasmani Grandal.

With that, the Reds lost the game and the series to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Reds have have now lost seven of their last 10 games and are barely ahead of the Buccos in the NL Central Division.

Those calls from within the Reds fanbase for David Bell to be fired at the end of the season will only get louder after Cincinnatis latest one-run loss. And while the Reds' 10-23 record in one-run games is baffling enough, there's another stat that is equalling as concerning, and reveals why so many of the Cincinnati faithful want Bell shown the door.

Baffling statistic shows exactly why Reds fans want David Bell fired

The Reds's run differential on the season is +29. For those unaware, that means that Cincinnati has scored 29 more runs than they've given up. Typically, a team with a positive run differential has a winning record. But that's not the case for the Reds.

Cincinnati's +29 run differential would put them just behind the New York Mets in the NL Wild Card race. The Mets are only two games back of the final wild-card spot and their expected win/ loss record (68-62) is identical to their actual record. Essentially, the Mets' record is reflective of how they've played this season.

As for the Reds, their expected win/ loss record is 69-62 while their actual record is 63-68. That's a difference of six games, meaning that Cincinnati has effectively lost six games that they were expected to win.

If the Reds actual record matched (or even came within a game or two) of their expected win/ loss, then Cincinnati would be battling it out with the Mets, Atlanta Braves, and San Francisco Giants for the final spot in the postseason. But instead, they're now 7.5 games back and their playoff hopes are all but dashed.

Run differential, one-run games, and expected win/ loss statistics are all somewhat meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Whether you win by one run or 12 runs, what matters is that you win. Ultimately, if Bell is terminated after this season, that will be the reason why. In nearly six years at the helm, Bell will have a losing record and the Reds have been to the playoffs only once during his tenure as manager.

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