One troubling stat puts Reds bullpen struggles into perspective

Nothing tells the story of the bullpen more than saves, and this season, the Cincinnati Reds’ saves leader is Emilio Pagán.

This makes complete sense to the casual fan. Pagán was re-signed to a two-year, $20 million contract this winter and has been Cincinnati’s closer since the start of last season. But he also hasn’t pitched since May 5. The fact that no one else has surpassed him on the leaderboard is an indictment of the Reds’ relievers.

Of the Reds’ relievers, only Tony Santillan has more than one save. Seven others have registered a single save this season. For a team that has gone 15-22 since Pagán’s injury, saves haven’t been easy to come by; the stat requires both a win and a certain margin of victory. Still, not having a designated closer could indicate a lack of faith in the relief corps at large.

Emilio Pagán is still the Reds’ saves — and he's been injured for a month

Pagán is on pace for fewer than 15 saves on the season. The last time the Reds’ closer was in that realm, the team finished 62-100 while Alexis Díaz mustered just 10 saves. In at least the past two decades, no team has won the World Series and had a closer with fewer than 15 saves. Sure, that’s a lofty goal, but the trend speaks to the need for a strong stopper at the back of the bullpen.

Who can fill that role until Pagán comes back? The Reds closer will be out for at least a few more weeks. Santillan has slotted into the closer role and recorded his fourth save of the season on Tuesday against the New York Mets.

He has done well with runners on, leaving 81% of runners on base, but hasn’t been as successful keeping the ball in the yard. In 29 innings, he has yielded nine home runs. His fastball has also dipped in velocity, potentially explaining his struggles; though Reds fans saw the right-hander touching 97 mph on Tuesday night.

Lefty Brock Burke has been the surprise signing of the season for Cincinnati. In 34 innings, he has a 2.91 ERA. That overshadows his struggles with command. His walk rate is above 15%, and he has had trouble keeping those runners from advancing. His LOB rate is 68.5%.

In short, there doesn’t seem to be an obvious answer to who can step up in Pagán’s absence. A lockdown closer is a must in baseball nowadays, and the Reds won’t find their way back into contention without addressing this bullpen problem.

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